Crypto Research
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Coinbase Premium Returns on Positive Move in Rate Expectations, and Why Bitcoin Mining and AI Might Be the Perfect Match
Today, we discuss how recent economic data is pushing the Fed Funds futures market in the right direction, the influence of rate expectations on the crypto market as observed through the Coinbase premium, the intersection of Bitcoin and AI, and why the near-term setup for COIN and STX is enticing.
MARKET UPDATE U.S. TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO ROLL OVER FOLLOWING THIS MORNING’S JOLTS REPORT SHOWING 8.059 MILLION JOB OPENINGS VERSUS 8.35 MILLION EXPECTED. Yields are lower across the curve, with the US10Y decreasing 1.12% to 4.34%. Equities are declining today, with the SPY -1.02% and QQQ -0.83% both trading approximately 0.40% lower, while the IWM is showing relative underperformance despite a decrease in rates. In contrast, crypto assets are responding positively to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC 3.20% HAS RETRACED A PORTION OF ITS EARLY MORNING GAINS BUT REMAINS DECISIVELY GREEN ON THE DAY, NOW TRADING BACK ABOVE $69K. ETH 3.11% and SOL 2.86% are lagging, with ETH 3.11% stalling around $3,780 and SOL 2.86% trading just under $164. Equities are mixed after starting the day hot, with only three sectors currently positive. This comes amidst a constructive rates backdrop, with the US 10Y moving sharply lower, now...
MARKET UPDATE APRIL PCE DATA MOSTLY MET EXPECTATIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY COOL READING IN CORE MOM DATA (0.2% VS. 0.3% EXP.), CAUSING RATES TO ROLL OVER. The US10Y has declined 1.02% to 4.51%, and the DXY has decreased 0.20%. Despite rates and the dollar rolling over, risk assets are selling off in the last trading day of the month. The SPY -1.02% has fallen to $520 and the QQQ -0.83% has dropped...
WEEKLY RECAP Total funding fell 18% week over week to $191 million, while the deal count rose 32% to 33. May saw $883 million in funding across 136 deals, being slightly above the 2024 average of approximately $800 million per month. Infrastructure was the leading category with $106 million in funding, primarily comprised of Babylon’s $70 million undisclosed round led by Paradigm. The Gaming category posted its highest totals in...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE YESTERDAY, WE SENT OUT A NOTE DISCUSSING HOW FAVORABLE INFLATION AND JOBS DATA WOULD BE KEY TO INCREASING CRYPTO INVESTOR CONFIDENCE. Today, we are seeing some of that with the Coinbase premium rising in the morning hours following favorable PCE revisions and jobless claims data. Rates are moving lower across the entire curve, and the DXY N/A% is sharply lower, back below 105. Most sectors are in the...
GOX RISK OVERBLOWN In a piece in late April, we noted a high likelihood that Mt. Gox repayments would begin toward the end of May or in early June. On Tuesday, the transfer of nearly 142k BTC, valued at approximately $9 billion, from Mt. Gox wallets to an unknown address generated a bearish market reaction. This transfer, likely part of a plan to repay creditors by October 31st, began in...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. TREASURY YIELDS AND THE DXY N/A% CONTINUE PUSHING UPWARDS, PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON RISK ASSETS. THE SPY -1.02% HAS DECLINED 0.53%, BREAKING BELOW $530, AND THE QQQ -0.83% HAS DECREASED 0.42% TO $458. Crypto assets are showing more pronounced losses, with BTC 3.20% (-1.42%) trading in the low $67,000s and ETH 3.11% (-2.29%) hovering near $3,750. Blackrock’s IBIT 2.67% saw inflows of $102.5 million yesterday, bringing its total AUM to just under $20...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RISK ASSETS, CRYPTO IS BROADLY LOWER THUS FAR TODAY DUE TO CONCERNS OVER ACTIVITY FROM MT. GOX WALLETS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MORE ON THIS BELOW). BTC 3.20% dropped below $67k after briefly revisiting the $70k level during a Memorial Day crypto rally. ETH 3.11% is also weaker compared to yesterday's price action but is still outperforming BTC on the day, currently trading around $3850....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO ASSETS ARE BROADLY MOVING HIGHER AGAIN AFTER SOME POST-ETF APPROVAL CONSOLIDATION. BTC 3.20% is back above $68K, while ETH 3.11% is hovering around the $3.7K level. SOL 2.86% is underperforming today, possibly as a side effect of the last of the FTX auction taking place yesterday. Pantera and Figure led the $2.6 billion auction, purchasing the locked tokens at $102 per SOL 2.86% . We often find that the market can...