Crypto Research

WEEKLY RECAP This week marked the third consecutive week of total funding over $100 million. This week’s total rose to $136 million compared to last week’s $119 million. A trend has developed of projects beginning to emerge from stealth development and announcing their product updates or new fundraises. Projects may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel of this bear market and think it is the right time...

Today’s video discusses macro and seasonal headwinds, including how the Fed's recent dot plot may impact crypto. We also dove into what may be causing crypto's outperformance during Asian trading hours. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here.

RATES SURGE ON HIGHER FOR LONGER As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets. The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher...

WEEKLY RECAP Momentum has continued after last week’s rebound in funding, with both deal count and total funding at similar levels. Total funding dropped $13m but still reached a robust $116m, while deal count stayed level with last week at 22 deals. Metaverse & Gaming is resurging after only three deals were announced for the category in August. These start-ups raised $31m in four deals, half of which came from...

Today’s video discusses seasonal headwinds, market outflows, and declining market liquidity, explaining why we are showing some tactical caution while remaining optimistic in the intermediate term. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here.

TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...

WEEKLY RECAP After two weeks of lackluster funding activity, there was a considerable rebound in both total fundraising and deal count. Total funding rose to $129 million, over 8x last week’s total, while deal count more than doubled. In addition to funding activity increasing, the average deal size increased to $8 million compared to $3 million last week. Four deals were in the $10-$25 million bucket, the highest count in...

THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...

WEEKLY RECAP In the final week of summer, crypto funding activity diminished. Total weekly funding fell to $16 million from $24 million the previous week. Deal count fell 25% to just 9 deals. Of the nine deals, both DeFi and Web3 & NFTs notched four deals. The Web3 & NFTs deals were slightly larger, totaling $9 million in investment compared to DeFi’s $5 million. A noticeable trend in the last...

GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...