Crypto Research
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MARKET UPDATE Risk assets are selling off following the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data this morning, showing 142k payrolls added in August compared to 165k expected, along with June and July numbers being revised sharply lower. The data has fueled recession fears while also sparking uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path and whether they will cut rates by 50bps or 25bps this month. Markets are currently leaning towards 25bps, assigning...
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
In today's video, we discuss the increasing near-term risks as demonstrated by the disconnect between real yields and bitcoin, and by a rising MOVE index. We also talk about why we remain optimistic heading into Q4. Last but not least, we discuss the latest Core Strategy rebalance. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA SKEWS TOWARD HARD-LANDING For this week’s note, we will begin by revisiting our market map for the near-term outlook on crypto. Over the past few months, the market has oscillated between expectations of a hard landing, soft landing, and no landing. However, since Powells’s speech at Jackson Hole, market outcomes have narrowed, leaving only the two scenarios furthest to the left—hard landing and soft landing. Both...
HNT Strength Persists Following $200k Burn, Broder Crypto Market Falls on Mixed Econ Data
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Jobless claims came in consistent with recent trends, while the ADP report fell well below market expectations, posting 99k jobs versus the 145k expected. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI showed another expansionary figure this month, continuing its divergence from ISM Manufacturing PMI. This initially provided a bounce in yields and risk assets, but over the past few hours, yields have started to roll over again while major...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ARE DROPPING FOLLOWING SOFTER-THAN-EXPECTED JOLTS DATA, SHOWING 7.67 MILLION JOB OPENINGS IN JULY VERSUS 8.1 MILLION EXPECTED. The US10Y has fallen below 3.8%, with the 10Y-2Y spread briefly un-inverting. Equities are flat on the day, with the SPY 0.15% and QQQ 0.05% increasing less than 0.1%. Crypto is showing relative strength, with BTC rebounding to $58.3k after reaching a low of $55.5k last night. ETH is gaining...
Election and Rates Cited as Key Risks Stunting New Order Growth, Prediction Markets / Polling Shift Toward Trump
In today's video, we explore the risk-off move in crypto, analyze what the ISM Manufacturing report suggests about market risks in the coming months, highlight an under-discussed shift in polling odds, and review key data points this week that could shift market expectations from 'hard-landing' back to 'soft-landing' pricing. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE September is off to a bumpy start for markets. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in at a contractionary 47.2, below the expected 47.9, pushing treasuries higher while equities and crypto dipped. Defensive sectors are leading equities as the price action clearly signals a shift to risk-off sentiment. This week is pivotal, with key data releases including JOLTs job openings on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly totals in fundraising and deal count showed slight decreases week over week. Total funding fell 7% from $199 million to $185 million, and deal count dropped 11% from 27 to 24. Infrastructure has dominated the month of August, making up 65% of the month’s funding and comprising 70% of this week’s total. Gaming and DeFi made up the majority of the remaining funding, representing 14% and 11%...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE RELATIVELY FLAT ON THE FINAL DAY OF TRADING FOR AUGUST, WITH THE ^SPX OSCILLATING AROUND $5,600 AND THE NDQ TRADING NEAR $19,400. Rates and the dollar are gaining today despite PCE and Consumer Confidence data providing more assurance that inflation is receding. Crypto is underperforming, with BTC falling to $58.5k and ETH at $2,450, as ETF flows and spot volumes have been muted this week....
Jackson Hole Eliminates “Plane Climbing” Scenario for Crypto, Historical Data Suggests Volumes Bottom This Week
In this week’s video, we discuss the recent lack of spot market volumes and how historical data indicates that volumes are likely to bottom out this week. We also explore why the outcome of Jackson Hole significantly reduces the likelihood of a cyclical downturn for crypto in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
LOWER VOLUMES PERSIST Earlier this week, we witnessed approximately $2B in open interest being unwound within a matter of hours—a significant forced deleveraging event for an otherwise uneventful Tuesday, lacking a clear catalyst. In our view, the selloff was largely technical and indicative of the negative seasonality we've been discussing recently. To backtrack, Monday and Tuesday followed a dovish Fed pivot at Jackson Hole, sparking a sharp rally in soft-landing...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE In stark contrast to the recent BLS job number revisions, the government revised its Q2 GDP estimate higher this morning to 3%, leading to a jump in rates and the DXY. However, this data also apparently boosted confidence in the soft landing trade, as rate-sensitive indices like IWM are outpacing ^SPX and QQQ 0.05% . Chip-adjacent stocks are also performing well, spurred by another earnings beat from NVDA 3.80% , benefiting...