Crypto Research
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Election and Rates Cited as Key Risks Stunting New Order Growth, Prediction Markets / Polling Shift Toward Trump
In today's video, we explore the risk-off move in crypto, analyze what the ISM Manufacturing report suggests about market risks in the coming months, highlight an under-discussed shift in polling odds, and review key data points this week that could shift market expectations from 'hard-landing' back to 'soft-landing' pricing. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE September is off to a bumpy start for markets. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in at a contractionary 47.2, below the expected 47.9, pushing treasuries higher while equities and crypto dipped. Defensive sectors are leading equities as the price action clearly signals a shift to risk-off sentiment. This week is pivotal, with key data releases including JOLTs job openings on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly totals in fundraising and deal count showed slight decreases week over week. Total funding fell 7% from $199 million to $185 million, and deal count dropped 11% from 27 to 24. Infrastructure has dominated the month of August, making up 65% of the month’s funding and comprising 70% of this week’s total. Gaming and DeFi made up the majority of the remaining funding, representing 14% and 11%...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE RELATIVELY FLAT ON THE FINAL DAY OF TRADING FOR AUGUST, WITH THE ^SPX 0.13% OSCILLATING AROUND $5,600 AND THE NDQ TRADING NEAR $19,400. Rates and the dollar are gaining today despite PCE and Consumer Confidence data providing more assurance that inflation is receding. Crypto is underperforming, with BTC falling to $58.5k and ETH at $2,450, as ETF flows and spot volumes have been muted this week....
Jackson Hole Eliminates “Plane Climbing” Scenario for Crypto, Historical Data Suggests Volumes Bottom This Week
In this week’s video, we discuss the recent lack of spot market volumes and how historical data indicates that volumes are likely to bottom out this week. We also explore why the outcome of Jackson Hole significantly reduces the likelihood of a cyclical downturn for crypto in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
LOWER VOLUMES PERSIST Earlier this week, we witnessed approximately $2B in open interest being unwound within a matter of hours—a significant forced deleveraging event for an otherwise uneventful Tuesday, lacking a clear catalyst. In our view, the selloff was largely technical and indicative of the negative seasonality we've been discussing recently. To backtrack, Monday and Tuesday followed a dovish Fed pivot at Jackson Hole, sparking a sharp rally in soft-landing...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE In stark contrast to the recent BLS job number revisions, the government revised its Q2 GDP estimate higher this morning to 3%, leading to a jump in rates and the DXY. However, this data also apparently boosted confidence in the soft landing trade, as rate-sensitive indices like IWM are outpacing ^SPX 0.13% and QQQ. Chip-adjacent stocks are also performing well, spurred by another earnings beat from NVDA, benefiting...
MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE DECLINING AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS LATER TODAY, WITH THE SPY 0.09% DECREASING TO $558.53, WHILE THE NVIDIA-HEAVY QQQ HAS DROPPED TO $472.20. The crypto market has suffered from large amounts of liquidations over the last 24 hours, totaling over $355 million as yesterday evening, BTC fell swiftly from $62k down to $58k while ETH made a similar move, falling from $2.6k to $2.4k in less than...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Despite a $200 million inflow into BTC ETFs yesterday, crypto prices have declined over the past 24 hours. BTC has fallen back below $62K, ETH is under $2,600, and SOL is just below $155. Only a few coins are in the green today, including TON, rebounding from its recent selloff, MKR, following its major rebrand announcement, and STX, likely benefiting from the ongoing activation of the Nakamoto...
MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO MARKETS EXTENDED LAST WEEK’S RALLY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH BTC BRIEFLY RISING ABOVE $65K AND ETH ABOVE $2.8K. They have trimmed some of their gains, with Bitcoin trading at $63.3k and Ethereum slightly above $2.7k. AI-related tokens have been outperforming ahead of Nvidia earnings set for this Wednesday. FET, RNDR, and AKT have gained 69%, 38%, and 25%, respectively over the last seven days. U.S. equities are...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding showed a slight decrease, falling from $211 million to $199 million, while the total deal count increased 37% from 19 deals to 26. Infrastructure was the leading category, totaling $156 million in funding across 12 deals and making up over three-quarters of the total amount. DeFi was the second leading category, with $26 million in funding, including SatLayer, a Bitcoin restaking solution similar to EigenLayer. This...