Crypto Research
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INFLATION EASES, MARKETS RIP The collective world briefly exhaled this week as inflation showed its first signs of cooling in nearly a year. On Wednesday, CPI surprised to the downside, as energy prices showed a month-over-month (MoM) decline for the first time since April. Topline CPI was 8.5%, below the consensus forecast of 8.7%, and lower than the 9.1% figure in June. The CPI basket was unchanged MoM, as the...
NOT-SO-PRIVATE KEYS This week started with a pair of high-profile exploits – the first of which came in the form of a bridge hack, as interoperable bridging protocol Nomad was hacked for $200 million. Ironically, the vulnerability appeared to stem from a known bug highlighted in a previous audit. Despite this, the Nomad hack furthered widespread skepticism surrounding multichain bridge security. To seemingly one-up Monday’s hacker, an entity on Tuesday...
DATA DUMP Last week, we discussed the market’s positive reaction to the deluge of negative economic data. Despite a continued murky economic outlook, risk assets performed well. This was an encouraging sign that gave us confidence that we have seen the market put in this year’s lows. We also mentioned that this past week would be another crucial week of data, with an expected negative real GDP report, a consequential...
GOOD PRICE ON BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS Last week, we discussed the piping-hot inflation print and expected additional volatility around this data point. On the contrary, markets behaved resiliently, with legacy markets and crypto rallying hard from last Thursday to today. The market had what seemed to be its first winning week since March as BTC surged 18%, while ETH left the rest of the market in the dust...
CPI STILL HOT Despite oil prices falling and inventories growing, lagging CPI data came in hot this week. It was expected to be an eye-popping 8.8% but still managed to surprise to the upside. The CPI print of 9.1% was the highest in four decades as gas prices soared 11% month-over-month. _Source: BLS_ Due to the perceived lack of inflation relief, markets immediately reacted to the news, upping the consensus...
UPDATE ON THE MERGE Despite one of our potential catalysts for the year being struck down this week (the GBTC conversion to spot ETF), the prospects for a 2022 Ethereum remain intact. This weekend, ETH developers will attempt the second of three testnet merges on the path to mainnet Merge. Testnet merges are essentially dress rehearsals for the main event – the Merge of the Ethereum mainnet. The first testnet...
Last week we noted that Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a prop shop headed by the once-beloved Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, was on the brink of exiting the industry. Well, if you have been following our daily market updates, you know by now that this did indeed happen, and 3AC unleashed chaos of leverage unwinds on its way out the door. In the past week, we witnessed yet another bout...
THE BLOODBATH The bloodbath that has persisted for the better part of the past seven months continued this weekend, with the market shedding an additional $200 billion in total market cap, falling below the $1 trillion mark for the first time since late 2020. Yesterday was the single biggest decline for bitcoin (-16%) since March 2020. At the time of writing (early morning hours of June 14th), there have been...
MERGE UPDATE If you recall, several potential catalysts for this year were highlighted during our 2022 preview. A major one was the proposed transition of Ethereum from its current Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) architecture through a process colloquially termed the “Merge.” This is a catalyst that we felt the market was heavily discounting due to Ethereum developers’ track record of delays (Some thought this would take place five...
Recently, we have been quite cautious about cryptoasset prices in the immediate term, recommending that investors hedge to the downside. We still think this is appropriate given the relentless hawkish signaling from the Fed and lack of conclusive softening economic data. While we believe there are signs of inflation turning over, we find it difficult to rationalize anyone with near-term liquidity needs to bet the farm on cryptoassets. _Source: TradingView_...
MOVING SIDEWAYS To the relief of many crypto investors, the market has mostly churned sideways this week. Volumes have receded following the large selloff a couple of weeks ago as Bitcoin fights to avoid its _NINTH CONSECUTIVE RED WEEKLY CANDLE_. _Source: TradingView_ As we have been discussing, altcoins have not found much respite amid the market tumult either, as bitcoin dominance continues to show strength, surpassing 46% again this week....
THE QUESTION REMAINS – WEN[1] BOTTOM? Since the November highs, most of the downward pressure on crypto prices has been the product of macroeconomic headwinds. Inflation has yet to conclusively rollover, and the Fed appears intent on stifling demand to bring down the costs of consumer goods. Last week, we had the first instance this year of an idiosyncratic event specific to the crypto markets shaking investors and sending prices...