Vibe Shift
Crypto Continues to Show Relative Strength
It was an eventful week in global macro (this is now the default opening line of every note), as consequential headlines rolled across the tape at a rapid clip. Among them:
Signs of slowing demand appeared in Apple’s revised agreement with suppliers, and early signs of potential deflation were on display in Nike’s surging inventories.Despite this, the Fed’s preferred inflation figure, PCE, came in extra hot for the month of August, consistent with the CPI print released earlier this month. Markets clearly already contemplated this number in asset prices following the CPI release, but it still left many market observers scratching their heads.We witnessed the second material intervention from a major central bank this week, as the Bank of England was forced to bid on long-duration UK treasuries such that large pensions did not go belly-up (more on this later).The Bank of Japan revealed that it spent nearly $20 billion in last week’s currency intervention. They stated that selling US treasuries was not yet an option on the table, but at the time of writing, the $JPY is trading about where it did before the central bank’s intervention.Nord Stream 2, a critical chess piece in the War in Ukraine, was destroyed, the proximate ...Reports you may have missed
SMALL CAP BREAKOUT A POSITIVE INDICATOR FOR BTC It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a...
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...
CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
PBOC ONE-UPPING THE FED This week, China’s central bank initiated what we believe are the first steps in a broader effort to stimulate the economy, which is struggling to meet its annual growth target of around 5%. These new measures are aimed at reviving economic activity and restoring confidence, especially in the real estate and equity markets, both of which are facing significant challenges. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...
