Crypto Research
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What the Fed, inflation, tapering & rising rates could mean for the price of Bitcoin
After bottoming on bad news a week ago, Bitcoin and crypto had been rallying heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, but crypto markets fell slightly alongside other major asset classes following the Fed policy statement, and have remained roughly flat this morning. Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg The Federal Reserve spooked some market participants with its commentary around inflation expectations, tapering and rising interest rates. Source: Fundstrat, CNBC, New York Times Inflation has...
Bitcoin bouncing in the face of further China crackdowns signals the market is “bottoming on bad news”
Bitcoin and crypto markets have been hit with a wave of bad news headlines over the past couple months and prices have taken a sharp hit in response. China’s regulatory crypto crackdowns have been some of the largest contributors to the market action. This morning, news of further crackdowns started circulating after the major Chinese internet service providers Baidu and Weibo started censoring searches for the three largest Asian crypto...
Crypto markets have remained relatively quiet (although Elon Musk hasn’t) and stable this week. Last week, we wrote several notes about why we thought the market may have found a bottom due to the massive deleveraging, that a falling BTC VIX is indicating peak fear fading, and how news getting “less bad” is good for the market. We didn’t expect the weekend sell-off that many were fearful of, and once...
But unlike past weekends, Bitcoin barely responded to these headlines (see below). In fact, Bitcoin is indeed flat/rising over the long weekend: - at 4pm ET Friday (5/28), Bitcoin was ~$34,900 - at 3:50pm ET Sunday (5/30) when FT story "broke" Bitcoin was ~$36,000 - as of this writing at 4:30pm ET (5/31), Bitcoin is $36,900, +$900 vs FT headline In other words, despite another set of "negative headlines" Bitcoin...
Unpopular opinion --> We expect stable/rising prices. Setup for Bitcoin and crypto is "less bad" into the weekend = good.
_PS: HOW DOES BITCOIN SPILL OVER INTO EQUITIES?_ These crypto sell-offs have potential impacts on equity and broader markets, for several reasons: - many US crypto holders also own equities (ala Robinhood) - Bitcoin futures are traded by macro funds, hence, drawdowns/limit down moves impact macro markets - Bitcoin has become somewhat loosely connected to the equities, because both are "risk-on" assets -- more apparent these days
The weekly returns for the Rebel coins was obviously poor but do not overlook the returns achieved over the first 5 months of the year. ☀️Have a good long weekend, BitDigest will be back on Tuesday June 1st. THE HEADLINES MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS MARKET DATA THOUGHTS ON THE ECOSYSTEM DAILY CARTOON
Given the recent crypto market volatility, we are writing a bit more frequently to help ourselves and our readers better assess where the market may be headed. In our Sunday night note, we discussed how the market may be seeing an exhaustion of sellers. In our Monday night note, we discussed how that may have driven the market bounce we saw. On Tuesday and Wednesday (today), crypto markets have calmed...