A Framework for Positioning Around Tightening Monetary Policy
Weekly Recap
It was yet another choppy, risk-off week for crypto, as investor concerns over inflation and the impending Fed response grew. Last week, we discussed how the March FOMC meeting minutes discussed an expeditious plan for rate hikes and a roadmap for quantitative tightening starting as early as May. This clearly reverberated throughout both traditional and crypto markets over the past week.
On Tuesday, March CPI figures were released, the first numbers to reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine. While the headline figure of 8.5% came in slightly above analyst expectations, Core CPI met expectations, thus marginally reducing rate hike expectations and leading to a partial recovery in risk assets.
As one might expect, Web3 and DeFi names have underperformed over the previous seven days. Smart contract platforms performed surprisingly well, following closely behind currencies.
A Framework for Positioning Around The Fed
In Q4 2021 and early Q1 2022, we frequently discussed how bitcoin was trading like an overpriced tech stock, falling precipitously as the US 10-year started to move higher. It was clear to us that as the macro outlook turned bearish, and as investors ran for cash/commodities, bitcoin and other risk assets traded in...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
