Launch Sequence (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Quick Recap
First and foremost, we would like to extend a Happy New Year to all our clients and subscribers. The past year was indeed eventful, marked by banking crises, significant court victories, and BlackRock's foray into the sector – truly a remarkable journey.
Our Core Strategy, though it lagged behind the King, performed well. This was particularly supported by the strong performance of our altcoin basket in Q4. We are deeply grateful to those who placed their trust in us to navigate the complexities of the crypto market. We are excited about the prospect of tackling the markets alongside you once again this year.
Our crypto equities baskets also performed well. For the record, we have not made any changes to these trade recommendations as of now. Should any changes occur, they will be duly noted and documented in our strategy updates.
Clearing the Board
On Tuesday, we noted that funding rates for leverage had become quite elevated. This marked the first indication of speculative excess since the onset of the bull market. At one point, perps funding rates (the fee leveraged long positions pay to others for taking the opposite side of the trade) reached up to 80% annualized. This indicates...Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...