Bullish Unlocks
Shapella Arrives
We are now less than a week away from staking withdrawals being enabled on the Ethereum network. We have been discussing this topic frequently throughout our research, but to reiterate, we maintain that the market is overly pessimistic about the supply-side effects of this event. To reiterate the key points behind our rationale:
Liquidity Access for Most Stakers: Approximately 60% of the staked ETH is through liquid staking providers or centralized exchanges (CEX), which already provide liquidity access without waiting for the upgrade. Thus, when questioning the magnitude of the supply overhang, we should consider the maximum sell pressure to be 40% of the total 18 million ETH currently locked on the beacon chain.Withdrawal Queue Post-Shanghai Upgrade: There are limitations on the number of validators permitted to exit the Ethereum Beacon Chain and restrictions on the withdrawal process. These restrictions help minimize the amount of ETH entering the market in a short timeframe, reducing the risk of a sudden supply overhang. Moreover, a significant factor in the supply overhang equation is when an ETH holder sells their ETH. A withdrawal from the beacon chain does not necessarily necessitate an immediate market sell.Market De-Risking Prior to Shanghai Upgr...Unlock this article by joining our Community!
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