China crypto ban made the sell-off worse, but PBOC balance sheet growth matters more than posturing and is not the only key market driver - rally remains intact

NO SHORTAGE OF UNCERTAINTY We generally refrain from overly frequent adjustments to our allocation strategy. However, recent developments have shifted the immediate-term risk/reward balance for our Core Strategy, necessitating a relatively more cautious approach. Based on our analysis below, we also have a good idea for when the market will find a more stable footing. The DXY has rallied significantly, and the long end of the yield curve has experienced...

WHAT BTC SHRUGGING OFF CPI SAYS ABOUT CURRENT FISCAL SITUATION The most significant piece of macro data this week was the CPI. Headline CPI registered at 3.5%, surpassing the anticipated 3.4%, while core CPI remained steady from last month at 3.8%, also above the expected 3.7%. This increase was largely attributed to rising costs in auto insurance and shelter. Consequently, interest rates saw a sharp rise, with the 10-year Treasury...

INFLOWS RESUME On Monday, market sentiments were rattled by a surprisingly strong manufacturing PMI figure, marking the first expansionary reading in 18 months. This led to a rise in rates, with risk assets across the board experiencing selloffs amid renewed inflation concerns and fears that the Federal Reserve might need to implement further measures to cool the economy. However, in our crypto comments video on Tuesday, we outlined a couple...