Technical Strength Into Year-End

Dec 11, 2023 • 10 Min Read

Bitcoin ($BTC)

“Crypto-winter” looks to be over.  A bullish 2024 looks likely technically following a 1Q consolidation.

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Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course.  The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021 is promising heading into 2024.  

Near-term targets lie between $46-$48k, initially lining up near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2021 along with several Fibonacci projections of the initial rally off the 2023 lows.  This area would represent the likely first real area of resistance to this rally.

However, momentum is quite strong at present, and Counter-trend exhaustion is premature on weekly timeframes per DeMark indicators by around 6-7 weeks.  Thus, the ideal scenario would call for a rally to $46-$48k, some consolidation, followed by some acceleration up to challenge $69k into mid-January.  

Importantly, the timeframe of the weekly DeMark count could align nicely with the cycle composite chart (shown later in this report) which argues for a January peak in Bitcoin utilizing the 41-week...

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