SOL Supply Dynamics Improved, BTC Correlations Suggest Changing Market Dynamics
Gox Risk Overblown
In a piece in late April, we noted a high likelihood that Mt. Gox repayments would begin toward the end of May or in early June. On Tuesday, the transfer of nearly 142k BTC, valued at approximately $9 billion, from Mt. Gox wallets to an unknown address generated a bearish market reaction. This transfer, likely part of a plan to repay creditors by October 31st, began in the early Asian morning hours. The immediate market response featured Bitcoin dropping to a low of $67,680 after reaching a high of over $70,000 on Monday. Concerns about potential selling pressure from such a large amount of BTC caused traders to pull back risk.
In any other market, we would say that this supply is “priced in,” but this is crypto, and the market is not always as efficient as others, as information disseminates to different participants at differing rates. Thus, it is worth assessing the near-term risks, as 142k BTC equates to roughly 20% of daily volume across all exchanges.
Given that we are still mid-cycle and those receiving their BTC in-kind have been in the market for a very long time (high-conviction, long-term investors), and the funds that purchased BTC claims are likely hedged, we think the near-term selling pressure from these coins will be less than ...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
