A Historically Momentous Week, Increasing ETH Exposure
Imminent 19b-4 Approval Seems Likely
Up until yesterday, we were quite bearish about the prospects of a spot ETH ETF approval. Our off-the-record conversations with those close to the situation confirmed this sentiment. ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin ETF call, also assigned a very low probability of approval. The market agreed as well, with the ETHE discount widening from 8% to over 20% in the past couple of months, indicating a lack of conviction over ETH ETF approval.
Thus, we are inclined to think that this is indeed a late development from the SEC, potentially part of a wider shift in regulatory attitudes from the current administration. The Biden White House and the Warren-led Senate have been notably antagonistic towards crypto, with the latter even campaigning on an anti-crypto platform.
What changed? A couple of weeks ago, at an event at the Trump estate in Florida, Presidential Candidate Trump was asked about his attitudes toward crypto. He replied that he was open to it and wanted to see crypto businesses stay in the US.
We think that this, combined with tight polls across major swing states and the bipartisan overturning of the notably anti-consumer SAB 121 last week, has led to a forced change in to...Reports you may have missed
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INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
