Crypto Receives a Boost from Strong Jobs Print, WULF Sells Hash Rate to Expand AI Capabilities
Crypto Market Update
The crypto market is moving higher today, lifted by stronger-than-expected jobs numbers. The BLS reported 254k jobs added last month, far exceeding the market estimate of 140k, while August’s figures were revised up from 142k to 159k. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. In response, rates rallied, the DXY spiked, and the futures market largely priced out the possibility of a 50 bps rate hike next month. Despite these moves, crypto pushed higher, likely driven by a reduced probability of a hard landing scenario, which is now seen as nearly zero. BTC 1.15% is trading just above $62k, ETH 2.36% over $2400, and SOL 1.53% is attempting to break through $144. Leading the top 50 in performance are TAO 5.09% , TIA 0.00% , WIF 6.64% , RNDR, and STX 11.55% . Broader equity markets are also up, with small caps again outperforming large caps.
WULF Monetizes Nautilus
TeraWulf has sold its 25% stake in the Nautilus Cryptomine joint venture for $92 million to a subsidiary of Talen Energy Corporation, with plans to reinvest these funds into its Lake Mariner facility, which is focused on high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data centers. The sale included $85 million in cash and 30,000 bitcoin miners, delivering a 3.4x return for TeraWulf. While the market seems to be penalizing WULF N/A% for this decision—likely viewing it as shedding cost-efficient hash rate at a less-than-ideal point in the liquidity cycle—the company, now the sixth-largest public Bitcoin miner, aims to capitalize on the long-term cost advantages of its Lake Mariner operations before the PPA contract for Nautilus expires. This move also aligns with TeraWulf’s strategic diversification into AI infrastructure to meet rising demand, setting it apart from its peers.
SWIFT to Trial Digital Asset Transactions
Starting in 2025, banks across North America, Europe, and Asia will use SWIFT’s network to trial live digital asset and currency transactions, transitioning from experimental phases to real-world implementation. These trials will demonstrate SWIFT’s capability to facilitate seamless value transfers between four billion accounts globally, integrating digital assets into the traditional financial system. Building on prior work, which showed SWIFT’s ability to link blockchains, CBDCs, and cash networks, the trials will focus on payments, FX, securities, and trade. With 134 countries currently exploring CBDCs and tokenized assets projected to reach $16 trillion by 2030, SWIFT aims to address the fragmented digital landscape by linking isolated networks. SWIFT is also participating in Project Agora, a BIS-led initiative focused on integrating tokenized bank deposits and CBDCs. Tom Zschach, SWIFT’s Chief Innovation Officer, noted that for digital assets to succeed globally, they must coexist seamlessly with traditional money.
Technical Strategy
Following a sharp drawdown after having successfully found resistance near the top of its five-month range in mid-September, Monero now looks to be bottoming. Daily XMR -0.26% charts show price having held at a near exact area where this bottomed out in August as well as July between $133-$135. Volume spiked on the pullback to support this past Wednesday, marking a likely capitulatory low. Technical signs of reversals were apparent on Thursday’s rebound which is now following through today. This likely paves the way for a push up to $153-$157 initially and the ability to reclaim $157. Movement back above $157 would set the stage for a larger rally back to challenge key resistance at $180. Overall, XMR looks like an attractive risk/reward here following a third retest of important support.
Daily Important Metrics
All metrics as of 2024-10-04 17:06:33 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices
All prices as of 2024-10-04 17:06:12 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
News
|
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY Most of the risks that prompted us to turn cautious in early February still persist, so we believe it’s right to remain patient. However, the near-term (2–4 weeks) setup is starting to look compelling for a tactical rally as sentiment is miserable, liquidity conditions are improving on the margin, a lot of risk has already been priced in, and we’ve seen serious capitulation and deleveraging. All eyes will...
MSTR Reloading Presents Opportunity for Bounce, But Broader Picture Remains the Same
CORE STRATEGY There is a chance that MSTR flows spark a short-term bounce here, but assets further out on the risk curve continue to face headwinds from ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade and monetary policy. Although the current administration takes a pro-crypto stance, there appears to be no immediate catalyst to revive market enthusiasm. We still anticipate that crypto will outperform this year, but until we see further progress on trade/monetary...
CORE STRATEGY With lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility remains elevated. While regulatory developments and institutional adoption continue to bolster the medium- to long-term outlook, no immediate “good news” seems likely. Nevertheless, we still expect crypto to outperform this year. Until we see flows return to crypto, raising cash/trimming altcoin positions appears prudent (BTC dominance higher)....
CORE STRATEGY With the looming threat of an escalating trade war and economic data robust enough to discourage a more dovish Fed stance, we believe the upside risk for the DXY and yields has increased in Q1. Moreover, the market remains highly volatile and headline-driven, inhibiting the crypto market from gaining meaningful momentum. While regulatory developments are a key medium- to a long-term tailwind for crypto, it is unlikely that...
Articles Read 1/2
Enjoyed the read? Subscribe now for unlimited access!
Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time.
Already have an account? Sign In 0451e2-389c1a-678df4-9308bf-8b2441
Already have an account? Sign In 0451e2-389c1a-678df4-9308bf-8b2441