Some Quick Thoughts on ETH ETF, Regulation, and Updates on Recent Tactical Trade Ideas
On ETH Approval and Volatility
We expect a decision on the ETH ETFs today and are bullish on the prospect of approval. ETH open interest is well above all-time highs. Whichever way this breaks, expect some potentially whipsawing volatility. Our base case right now is that we are likely to see a bit of a rally and drawdown post-19b-4 approval, then a slow march higher into S-1 approval and listing.
What will be interesting post-approval is which assets are identified as next in line for an ETF. Our money is on SOL.
FIT21 was passed by the House yesterday on a bipartisan basis. This bill provides clarity around market structure and regulatory jurisdiction for the SEC and CFTC. This was yet another regulatory victory for crypto this week. We think that regardless of what happens, this 180-degree pivot from the Democratic party has created a bullish environment for crypto asset prices and is encouraging for the broader outlook for the industry in the US.
Tactical Trade Updates
Closing AKT – We did not get the follow-through out of AKT that we were looking for post-NVDA earnings, despite smashing new all-time highs. Thus, we think it’s right to cut this trade loose and perhaps revisit it next earnings season.