A Historically Momentous Week, Increasing ETH Exposure
Imminent 19b-4 Approval Seems Likely
Up until yesterday, we were quite bearish about the prospects of a spot ETH ETF approval. Our off-the-record conversations with those close to the situation confirmed this sentiment. ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin ETF call, also assigned a very low probability of approval. The market agreed as well, with the ETHE discount widening from 8% to over 20% in the past couple of months, indicating a lack of conviction over ETH ETF approval.
Thus, we are inclined to think that this is indeed a late development from the SEC, potentially part of a wider shift in regulatory attitudes from the current administration. The Biden White House and the Warren-led Senate have been notably antagonistic towards crypto, with the latter even campaigning on an anti-crypto platform.
What changed? A couple of weeks ago, at an event at the Trump estate in Florida, Presidential Candidate Trump was asked about his attitudes toward crypto. He replied that he was open to it and wanted to see crypto businesses stay in the US.
We think that this, combined with tight polls across major swing states and the bipartisan overturning of the notably anti-consumer SAB 121 last week, has led to a forced change in to...Reports you may have missed
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Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...
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