Good Time to Buy Volatility
CPI Still Hot
For the second consecutive month, inflation was much hotter than analysts had anticipated. Despite headline CPI easing for the third consecutive month, the headline figure of 8.2% came in above the market consensus of 8.1%, and Core CPI accelerated to 6.6%, the highest in 40 years. Despite some relief in goods inflation, the numbers were not highly constructive for risk markets (or so it would seem).
Bottoming on Bad News Again?
Pre-market rates spiked, and equities and crypto sold off, opening well below the prior day’s close. However, volumes were generally low, and as put option buyers closed their positions, late shorts got washed out, buyers moved in, and the sell-off would go on to be erased rapidly and conclusively.
The bullish reversal saw bitcoin finish the day over 8% off the daily low, with most major altcoins following suit.
Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...