Risk-Off Pressure, Miner Supply Re-Emerges, and Defining Downside Clusters

Discussed in today’s video:

• Risk-off tone led by growth equities. Crypto began selling off Sunday night, effectively front-running a broader risk-off move across equities. The decline coincided with renewed weakness in SaaS and other AI-exposed growth stocks, which accelerated lower as the AI disruption trade extended. Given crypto’s persistent correlation to higher-duration growth assets, it followed that weakness.
• Macro crosscurrents remain in play. The move is consistent with the macro pressures I highlighted last week, including stretched positioning across risk assets and fragile sentiment.
• Miner supply is moving from theory to confirmation. In December, I flagged publicly traded miners’ ~100,000 BTC holdings as a potential headwind. Recent disclosures validate that concern. BTDR has reduced its BTC holdings to zero, accelerating sales over the past several weeks. The company raised capital through a convertible note and equity issuance, allocating proceeds primarily toward debt restructuring and expansion into data center, AI, and HPC infrastructure.
• Miner selling remains a marginal headwind. Over time, depleted treasuries should reduce incremental supply-side pressure. For now, however, this represents a modest but real source of overhang.
• BTC valuation frameworks cluster near $50K. MVRV currently sits around 1.2x. Historical troughs suggest a plausible cycle bottom between 0.85x and 0.95x, implying BTC near $49K at 0.9x. The MVRV Z-score, currently around -0.82, would imply roughly $48K if it revisits a slightly shallower trough than last cycle. The 300-week moving average also sits near $50K. Independent measures converge in the $48K–$52K range as a reasonable downside cluster.
• ETH downside framework. ETH’s recent relative strength likely reflects legitimate stablecoin and tokenization tailwinds, though DAT-driven demand may have pulled some flows forward. A retracement to the prior breakout zone near 0.024 ETH/BTC would imply roughly $1,200 ETH if BTC were trading near $50K.
• SOL downside framework. A return to the October 2023 breakout zone in SOL/BTC near 0.0009 would imply roughly $45 SOL at a $50K BTC price. This level sits modestly below our earlier $50–$75 range and would represent a full retracement of the “redemption-arc” breakout.
• Bottom Line: My confidence in near-term stabilization is waning, though it remains my base case. That said, I continue to believe annual lows are likely still ahead. Valuation and long-term moving-average frameworks point to lower support zones that should be defined in advance rather than reacted to in real time. Risk management remains paramount in the current regime.

Tickers in this video: BTC -0.96% ETH -0.99% SOL