Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE TODAY'S FLASH S&P PMIS SURPRISED TO THE UPSIDE, LEADING TO A BRIEF UPTICK IN RATES, WHICH HAS SINCE LARGELY RECEDED. Despite this, the DXY continues its march back toward 106, nearly reaching that level this morning. Naturally, crypto continues to display relative weakness, with BTC -0.60% dropping below $64k, ETH -1.38% below $3500, and SOL -1.89% briefly dipping below $130, now trading just above that level. ETHBTC is showing some...
LDO Risk/Reward Looks Good Here, Immediate-term Macro Picture Still Uncertain (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FLOWS AND SENTIMENT STILL SUBDUED Last week, we received a better-than-expected CPI print, but the DXY continued to move higher due to global weakness and a hawkish Fed. We discussed the risks appearing in the metrics we use to gauge sentiment and flows. The overall lack of follow-through in the crypto market was evident. Volumes, net ETP flows, the Coinbase discount, stablecoin market cap trend, and search interest for key...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED JOBLESS CLAIMS (238K VS. 235K EXP.) AND WEAK HOUSING STARTS DATA, RATES ARE RISING TODAY, WITH THE US10Y TICKING UP TO 4.27%. The DXY is also rising as investors are pricing a higher likelihood of the Bank of England cutting rates in August after holding them steady today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened at new all-time highs and are now...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE FLAT IN TODAY’S TRADING AHEAD OF TOMORROW’S MARKET CLOSURE IN RECOGNITION OF JUNETEENTH. This morning’s retail sales report showed consumer spending slowing, with MoM sales reading +0.1% versus +0.3% expected and core sales at -0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Rates and the DXY are declining in response to the data, while crypto assets continue to show weakness. BTC -0.60% fell to the low $64,000s this morning...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO HAS RESUMED ITS RECENT WEAKENING TREND FOLLOWING A WEEKEND PUMP, WITH BTC -0.60% TESTING THE $65K LEVEL, ETH -1.38% TRADING AROUND $3500, AND SOL -1.89% APPROACHING $140. The ETHBTC ratio is declining again after a weekend relief rally sparked by news from Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas on Friday evening, clarifying his timeline for the ETH ETF launch. Meanwhile, the DXY continues its upward trajectory from the post-CPI selloff,...
WEEKLY RECAP This week’s $113 million in funding was less than half of last week’s $242 million, although the deal count showed a more modest 17% drop to 30 deals. Infrastructure continues to be the most popular investment category. Infrastructure’s $66 million in funding was stapled by Nexus Labs and Nuffle Labs’ $25 million and $13 million respective investment rounds. After tallying a few deals in the previous two weeks,...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE ECONOMIC DATA CONTINUES TO SOFTEN, WITH TODAY'S CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY COMING IN AT 65.6, BELOW THE CONSENSUS MARKET FORECAST OF 72. One-year inflation expectations remain unchanged compared to last month. Rates are lower again today, but the DXY is higher due to outsized weakness in global markets. We sent out a note today recommending relative risk aversion in the immediate term as crypto continues to weaken. BTC -0.60% ...
We wrote on Thursday about how the reaction to recent macro data has been quite underwhelming. Crypto broadly rallied in response to a cool CPI number, but indicators such as a muted Coinbase premium and low exchange volumes suggest animal spirits are still lacking. Muted volumes relative to market prices, and low social interest as proxied by Google search trends further evidence a lack of risk appetite in the market....
Microstrategy Proposes $500 Million Convertible Note Offering, Terraform Labs Dissolving after $4.47 Billion Settlement
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THIS MORNING’S PPI DATA CONTINUES THE RECENT STREAK OF SOFTER INFLATIONARY DATA, WITH THE MAY MOM READING COMING IN AT -0.2% VERSUS +0.1% EXPECTED. Rates have continued to roll over, with the US10Y dropping to 4.25%. Despite the positive data, crypto is continuing to show weakness. BTC -0.60% has fallen back below $67k and ETH -1.38% below $3,500, while altcoins are showing more pronounced losses. The Open Network (TON -26.75% ),...
OVERALL, IT WAS A GOOD CPI/FOMC DAY As any market observer knows by now, CPI came in remarkably cool yesterday. May CPI data was soft across the board, with headline inflation at 0.0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and core inflation at 0.2% M/M vs. 0.3% expected. The unexpected data fueled a violent rally across all risk assets as rates fell, and the futures market started to price in additional cuts,...
