Crypto Research
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Monday Showed Some Encouraging Data, Worth Keeping Some Dry Powder on Hand for Next Couple Weeks
In today's video we discuss some encouraging data that suggests a near term bottom, the risks that remain in the market, things we are going to look for for added confidence, and how we would position portfolios in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.18% , ETH -1.24% , SOL -2.01% , HNT -2.19%
WHAT HAPPENED We won't spend time diving deeply into the events of the past few days as most are likely already familiar. In short, concerns about a potential domestic recession were ignited last Friday following a weak jobs report. This caused the dollar, particularly the USDJPY, to decline, triggering an unwinding of the yen carry trade and leading to widespread deleveraging across global markets. During such a global margin call,...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE GLOBAL MARKETS ARE EXPERIENCING A SELL-OFF AMID THE YEN CARRY TRADE UNWINDING, MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS, AND U.S. RECESSION FEARS. The Japanese Nikkei index fell 12.4%, its worst day since 1987’s Black Monday. U.S. equity futures and crypto followed suit, with the SPY -5.07% and QQQ -5.49% opening down over 4% and Bitcoin and Ethereum falling to lows of about $49k and $2,100. Bitcoin and Ether have since pared losses,...
WEEKLY RECAP Total funding dropped 17% from $122 million to $101 million, while the deal count fell 36% from 28 to 18. Although totals were muted compared to the prior two weeks, this week had the highest average deal size, at $5.6 million. DeFi was the leading category from both a fundraising and deal flow perspective, raising $57 million across eight deals, including our Deal of the Week, Morpho Labs....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THIS MORNING'S BIG MARKET MOVER WAS A SIGNIFICANT MISS IN THE JOBS REPORT, WITH NFP COMING IN AT 114K, WELL BELOW MARKET EXPECTATIONS OF 175K, AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISING TO 4.3%. This triggered concerns among investors, with some invoking the "Sahm Rule." As a result, yields have naturally fallen, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 3.8%. The DXY also took a sharp hit, now hovering just...
Shifting Election Odds Erases “Trump Premium,” but it Remains Difficult to Be Bearish Amid Falling Rates and Dollar
In today's video, we discuss how yesterday's price action erased the "Trump Premium" and explore how we should consider the impact of election odds on prices moving forward.
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE RISK ASSETS ARE BROADLY LOWER TODAY, WITH THE SPY -5.07% AND QQQ -5.49% PARING SOME OF THE RAPID GAINS SEEN YESTERDAY FOLLOWING THE FOMC MEETING IN WHICH RATES WERE HELD STEADY, BUT DOVISH COMMENTS SPARKED OPTIMISM, LEADING TO MARKETS PRICING IN THREE RATE CUTS BY YEAR-END. The US10Y has dropped below 4% for the first time since February. Crypto is showing steeper losses, with BTC -0.18% sharply lower to $62.7k...
Shifting Election Odds Erases “Trump Premium,” but it Remains Difficult to Be Bearish Amid Falling Rates and Dollar
IDEAL FOMC OUTCOME This week's events have been a reminder that while macro factors can align favorably, idiosyncratic elements can sometimes complicate the picture. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady until September. Notably, the FOMC statement emphasized the Fed's dual mandate, a significant shift from previous communications. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed a dovish stance, indicating a potential openness to rate cuts in September, contingent...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC -0.18% HAS BOUNCED BACK ABOVE $66K IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, LIKELY SUPPORTED BY A SINKING DXY AND A REBOUND IN EQUITIES. ETH -1.24% is slightly outperforming again, following a day of net ETF inflows—the first since the ETH ETFs launched—and is now trading just north of $3,300. Meanwhile, SOL -2.01% is lagging, dropping below $180. Notably, AAVE -2.51% , a constituent of our Liquid Ventures basket, has been the top...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITY INDICES ARE MOVING LOWER, WITH THE SPY -5.07% TRADING AT $540.95 AND THE QQQ -5.49% SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED LOSSES, TRADING AT $457.75. Economic data this morning exceeded expectations, with job openings and consumer confidence both surpassing estimates, although rates are still showing modest declines. Crypto assets are mixed, with BTC -0.18% holding slightly above $66k and ETH -1.24% gaining slightly to $3,320, and ETHBTC increasing above 0.05. Yesterday marked...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THE BIG NEWS THIS WEEKEND WAS THE SPEECH GIVEN BY FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP AT THE BITCOIN CONFERENCE, WHERE HE OUTLINED HIS PLANS FOR INTEGRATING BITCOIN AS A STRATEGIC RESERVE ASSET. This announcement triggered significant volatility as traders placed highly leveraged bets in both directions. As the volatility settled, prices rallied from Sunday into Monday morning, with BTC -0.18% briefly rising above $70,000 on most exchanges for the first...