Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE RATES MOVED HIGHER ON A HOTTER-THAN-EXPECTED NFP NUMBER, WITH A TOTAL OF 272K JOBS VERSUS THE FORECASTED 185K AND WELL ABOVE LAST MONTH'S 165K. However, unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, slightly above the expected 3.9%. The DXY increased to 104.8 from just above 104.1, and the US 10Y moved back above 4.4%. Major equity indices are higher after selling off premarket, and crypto appears to be...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding fell by almost 50% to $182 million, while the deal count fell by about a third to 23. The Infrastructure category led both funding and deal count, bolstered by Avail’s $47 million Series A round. CeFi saw $26 million in funding, including XREX’s $18.75 million strategic round with Tether. XREX will use the funding to help facilitate regulatory-compliant cross-border payments using USDT. Gaming had the second...
In today's video, we discuss the intersection of bitcoin miners and high-performance computing (HPC), as well as the positive implications of Robinhood's pending acquisition of Bitstamp. As a result, we are adding additional miners and HOOD to our crypto equities basket.
STX Remains Compelling Beta Exposure, Miners to Outperform in Lower Rate Environment
RATE EXPECTATIONS MOVING LOWER Last week, we discussed how rate expectations were a barrier to crypto moving higher and that we anticipate continued non-recessionary but soft economic data will help spur flows. Fast forward to this week, and we have seen a cool manufacturing PMI, a soft JOLTS report, and a services PMI in which the price component was below market expectations. The remaining important data for this week includes...
MARKET UPDATE EQUITIES ARE SHOWING MODEST DECLINES TODAY AFTER REACHING NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS YESTERDAY. The SPY 0.62% and QQQ 0.97% have declined approximately 0.20%, while rates are finding some relief despite jobless claims coming in higher than expected and Q1 unit labor costs coming in at 4.0% versus the estimated 4.9%. Investors will be watching tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report to provide further direction of yields. The crypto market is trading in line...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE RISK ASSETS ARE EXPERIENCING A BROAD RALLY TODAY, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVELY CONSTRUCTIVE MACRO DATA. The significant data point released today was the ISM Services PMI, which came in at 53.8, an expansionary figure above the expected 50.8, and well above the prior month's 49.4. Importantly, prices paid came in at 58.1, below the expected 59, which is a positive sign from an inflation perspective. As expected, the...
Coinbase Premium Returns on Positive Move in Rate Expectations, and Why Bitcoin Mining and AI Might Be the Perfect Match
Today, we discuss how recent economic data is pushing the Fed Funds futures market in the right direction, the influence of rate expectations on the crypto market as observed through the Coinbase premium, the intersection of Bitcoin and AI, and why the near-term setup for COIN and STX is enticing.
MARKET UPDATE U.S. TREASURY YIELDS CONTINUE TO ROLL OVER FOLLOWING THIS MORNING’S JOLTS REPORT SHOWING 8.059 MILLION JOB OPENINGS VERSUS 8.35 MILLION EXPECTED. Yields are lower across the curve, with the US10Y decreasing 1.12% to 4.34%. Equities are declining today, with the SPY 0.62% and QQQ 0.97% both trading approximately 0.40% lower, while the IWM is showing relative underperformance despite a decrease in rates. In contrast, crypto assets are responding positively to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC -0.59% HAS RETRACED A PORTION OF ITS EARLY MORNING GAINS BUT REMAINS DECISIVELY GREEN ON THE DAY, NOW TRADING BACK ABOVE $69K. ETH 2.48% and SOL -0.39% are lagging, with ETH 2.48% stalling around $3,780 and SOL -0.39% trading just under $164. Equities are mixed after starting the day hot, with only three sectors currently positive. This comes amidst a constructive rates backdrop, with the US 10Y moving sharply lower, now...
MARKET UPDATE APRIL PCE DATA MOSTLY MET EXPECTATIONS WITH A SLIGHTLY COOL READING IN CORE MOM DATA (0.2% VS. 0.3% EXP.), CAUSING RATES TO ROLL OVER. The US10Y has declined 1.02% to 4.51%, and the DXY has decreased 0.20%. Despite rates and the dollar rolling over, risk assets are selling off in the last trading day of the month. The SPY 0.62% has fallen to $520 and the QQQ 0.97% has dropped...
WEEKLY RECAP Total funding fell 18% week over week to $191 million, while the deal count rose 32% to 33. May saw $883 million in funding across 136 deals, being slightly above the 2024 average of approximately $800 million per month. Infrastructure was the leading category with $106 million in funding, primarily comprised of Babylon’s $70 million undisclosed round led by Paradigm. The Gaming category posted its highest totals in...
