Crypto Research
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ETH 0.86% managed to break out of its 3.5 year consolidation base over the weekend, which is quite bullish on an intermediate-term basis. As weekly charts show, the price managed to exceed both March and December 2024 peaks, bringing this to the highest levels since late 2021. This move effectively helps to surpass the resistance of this entire triangle pattern in my view. While I suspect that this initial breakout might have 2-3 weeks...
Miran’s Nomination Pulls Upside Risk Forward, Plus an ETH Chart Deck (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY We will address changes at the end of this note. Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat QUICK SIDENOTESWe produced an ETH chart deck for clients this week. You can find the report HERE.I will be traveling next week and will not be publishing during that time. I understand this coincides with CPI week, and I appreciate your patience and understanding. If a crypto-related emergency arises,...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FED GOVERNOR NEWS DRIVES MARKETS – Morning reports of Chris Waller in the running gave way to confirmation that Trump plans to nominate Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors.BEARISH DOLLAR – Miran advocates using tariffs and a weaker dollar to correct trade imbalances and has outlined coordinated Fed and Treasury measures to push the dollar lower.MARKET REACTION – The DXY dropped sharply on the news while BTC...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO: A weaker-than-expected Services PMI sparked an initial sell-off, but high-yield credit rallied, Treasuries remained under pressure, and small caps outperformed. ETH’s relative strength has diverged from small-cap performance in recent weeks, driven by growing interest in stablecoins and tokenization, along with steady demand from ETH-focused digital asset treasury (DAT) companies. DATs collectively hold approximately $7 billion in ETH and currently trade at around 1.4x NAV. At current premium levels, estimated...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:NEAR-TERM RISKS: possible Fed "mistake", upcoming TGA refill that may drain liquidity, unfavorable August–September seasonality, and capital flows turning negative.CUT ODDS RISE: Friday’s weak NFP and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation meaningfully increased the probability of a September rate cut.MEDIUM-TERM OPPORTUNITY: A rate cut into a slowing but growing economy, steady unemployment, and above-target inflation is a bullish mix for crypto.PRICE ACTION CHECK: Monday’s rebound was encouraging....
The Near-Term Setup for Crypto Appears Challenging, But Friday’s Developments Present a Compelling Bull Case for BTC (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY We will discuss changes made to our Core Strategy and Crypto Equities Portfolio at the end of today’s note. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat WRAPPING UP A CONSEQUENTIAL WEEK IN MACRO We’re wrapping up what was a pivotal week in macro, and by extension, crypto. At the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell struck a more hawkish tone than markets were expecting,...
JULY RECAP Funding continues to impress, totaling $1.1 billion across 88 deals. July represents the second consecutive month with over $1 billion in funding and the fourth in 2025, compared to just one in 2024. Infrastructure made up about half of total funding and deal count, including our Deal of the Month, Stable, a USDT-centric layer one chain built to transform payments. CeFi was the second leading category in funding...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:QRA: No hawkish or dovish surprises. Treasury will maintain coupon auction sizes, favor bill issuance, and double the frequency of long-end buybacks. The TBAC also flagged stablecoins as a potential new demand source for T-bills.FOMC: Powell struck a hawkish tone, but markets may look through it. Two dovish dissents and the June–March SOFR spread suggest expectations are shifting post-Powell and reinforce the fiscal dominance theme.PRESIDENT’S WORKING GROUP: Light on Strategic...
Discussed in today's video:MARKET IN WAIT-AND-SEE MODE: Crypto drifted modestly lower today, but not in a way that suggests meaningful weakness. Investors appear to be sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s key macro events.POSITIONING LOOKS CLEAN: Funding has reset and leverage remains contained. Structurally, the market is well-balanced.TRADE NARRATIVE TURNING SUPPORTIVE: The U.S.-EU trade deal and possible tariff deadline extensions, especially with China, point to de-escalation and improved risk sentiment.STILL LEANING BULLISH...
Discussed in today's video:BTC SUPPLY OVERHANG ABSORBED: The market digested 80,000 BTC from a Satoshi-era whale, removing a key short-term headwind and confirming strong demand at current levels.CONSTRUCTIVE PRICE RESPONSE: BTC rebounded from 115k to 120k following Galaxy’s sales, mirroring the reaction to the initial tranche.QRA REVEALS $1 TRILLION IN Q3 BORROWING: Treasury plans an aggressive TGA rebuild, which could hamper liquidity conditions, with the relative severity depending upon issuance...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat WHALE GAMES Last week, shortly after BTC hit a new all-time high of $123k, we noted movement from a wallet created back in 2011. An OG whale was transferring ~$9.5B of BTC to Galaxy, presumably in a large OTC deal, with some BTC also making its way to exchanges for sale. This activity triggered a roughly 6% drawdown from...
Discussed in today's video:VIX, MOVE, and high-yield spreads are all back to levels last seen in February. While some may read this as a sign of complacency, we think it more likely reflects a supportive backdrop for continuation.We remain constructive on ETH and SOL, but ideally would like to see BTC dominance form a local low and BTC make another leg higher in the near term.Leverage is building, but funding rates and Aave...