Crypto Research
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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Trump’s comments on China and the subsequent 100% tariff announcement triggered a broad risk-off move. Equities, crypto, and crude fell sharply while gold and bonds rallied.Crypto 24H liquidations reached $19.2B, the largest on record. Exchange dislocations, such as SOL trading $20 higher on Coinbase versus Binance, suggest one or more market maker failures.Historical precedent shows that major liquidation events are often followed by a period of consolidation,...
SEPTEMBER RECAP Q3 ended on a strong note with September representing the highest monthly funding of the year at $1.38 billion across 77 deals. Quarterly funding totals have been on an upward trend since Q4 of last year, with this quarter marking the highest quarterly amount since Q1 2023. Optimism surrounding the industry has increased under the new administration and notably after the passing of the GENIUS Act. Source: Fundstrat...
Whale Selling Weighs on BTC, But the Setup Remains Constructive, BTC/Gold Rotation Framework Points to $155K–$200K Potential
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:WHALE SELLING LIKELY EXACERBATED TODAY’S WEAKNESS - A large market participant, previously active on Hyperliquid, resurfaced this week, unloading spot BTC and shorting perps.CRYPTO EQUITIES SHOWED RESILIENCE - Despite pronounced weakness in tokens, crypto-linked equities held up relatively well, which is an encouraging sign for the broader crypto market.BTC/GOLD ROTATION REMAINS COMPELLING - Gold’s rally appears mature, and a BTC/Gold framework points to $155K–$200K potential into year-end.MINERS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM...
Hyperliquid Fundamentals Remain Intact Despite Noise, Oracle Margin Pressures Highlight the Advantage of Cheap Energy from Bitcoin Miners
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RISK-OFF DRIVEN BY AI MARGIN CONCERNS: Broader market weakness followed reports of Oracle’s thin AI cloud margins, rather than crypto-specific factors or changes in Fed expectations.BITCOIN MINERS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH: Power cost sensitivity in AI infrastructure highlights the leverage of energy-efficient compute providers. Bitcoin miners such as WULF, CIFR, IREN, HIVE, BITF, and GLXY outperformed.GOLD-TO-BITCOIN ROTATION THESIS INTACT: Gold’s rally toward $4,000 reinforces Bitcoin’s long-term “digital gold” narrative. Each re-rating...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:STRONG CAPITAL INFLOWS: Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.5B in trailing 7-day inflows, ETH added $800M, and stablecoin market cap grew by $5B, underscoring sustained spot demand and capital rotation into crypto.GALAXY EXPANSION: Galaxy Digital hit a new all-time high on the launch of Galaxy One, a consumer platform offering yield products, equities, and crypto trading, a strategic move to compete with Coinbase and Robinhood.ETF STAKING BREAKTHROUGH: Grayscale enabled staking for its...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:DOVISH OUTLOOK: With the government shutdown halting NFP and unemployment data, the Fed will likely head into the next FOMC without updated labor numbers, reinforcing a dovish bias. ADP payrolls missed expectations, but were not enough to trigger growth fears.FLOWS AND PARTICIPATION RISING: MSTR’s rebound is encouraging, Bitcoin ETFs have seen multiple strong inflow days, and trading volumes are climbing across BTC and ETH, signaling renewed investor participation.GOLD-TO-BITCOIN ROTATION: Gold...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ROBINHOOD STRENGTH: HOOD has surged on prediction market traction (>$2B Q3 volume), underscoring its ability to execute and monetize Gen Z through a full financial product suite.COINBASE CATCH-UP TRADE: With HOOD’s market cap now ~50% above COIN, Coinbase may look to accelerate product launches (tokenized equities, prediction markets). Combined with a supportive crypto backdrop, this sets up Q4 as a potential catch-up opportunity.MACRO BACKDROP SUPPORTIVE: Soft JOLTS data and a...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC LEADERSHIP: BTC’s Coinbase-Binance spread flipped to a premium during U.S. hours, and BTC dominance rose. This signals healthier participation and supports the ongoing crypto recovery.MACRO WILDCARD: A likely government shutdown could delay Friday’s NFP and unemployment data, increasing the likelihood of an October rate cut.SEASONALITY SHIFT: Crypto has exited its historically weak stretch and is entering Q4, a period that has historically delivered strong performance. TICKERS...
CORE STRATEGY Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CRYPTO EQUITIES PORTFOLIO Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CONTEXT FOR THIS WEEK IS IMPORTANT It was a tough week for crypto. BTC continued to grind lower while alts were hit hard, the result of several overlapping headwinds.The weakness started last Friday into monthly options expiry and was followed by a sharp leverage wipe on Sunday. Thin liquidity, combined with capital chasing new coins such as ASTER and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Growth surprises to the upside: Durable goods (+2.9% vs –0.5% est.) and GDP revision (3.8% vs 3.3% est.) show stronger growth. Yields rose and risk assets fell on concerns of a hawkish Fed. Contrary to price action, this reinforces my Q4 view.Fed cares more about labor: Two cuts are still priced for this calendar year, with the Fed balancing inflation and labor risks. A growth-positive backdrop with...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:CRYPTO UNDERPERFORMANCE CONTINUES: Altcoins remain weak, and the Coinbase–Binance BTC spread remains stuck in discount territory since mid-August, reflecting persistent U.S. selling.BEARISH SENTIMENT RISING: Option skew across maturities shows puts priced at their richest (on a relative basis) since the March/April tariff drawdown, highlighting defensive positioning.LIQUIDITY HEADWINDS FADING: The Treasury General Account refill has weighed on net liquidity, but with the TGA nearly full, this drag should soon subside.SEASONALITY AND...