Crypto Research
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MARKET UPDATE Crypto has gained sharply ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, at which the Fed is expected to begin its easing cycle. There is still uncertainty on the magnitude of the first rate cut, with markets pricing a 61% probability of 50bps as of this morning. BTC -1.70% has risen from $58k to $61k and ETH -3.65% has risen from the high $2,200s to $2,370. SUI -3.81% is outperforming today following news that...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market has moved lower over the past 24 hours, with BTC -1.70% dropping back near the $58k level, ETH -3.65% just below $2,300, and SOL -4.80% once again testing the $130 mark. Yields have started the week lower ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, where investors are currently anticipating a 50 bps rate cut, according to the Fed funds futures market. Equities started the morning broadly in the...
WEEKLY RECAP Funding activity bounced back from last week’s muted totals, with total funding rising 44% from $67 million to $96 million and deal count increasing 56% from 16 to 25. DeFi was the leading category from both a fundraising and deal count perspective, raising $44 million across 11 deals. This week's largest deal was a DeFi investment – Huma Finance raised $28 million in a Series A round to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The most notable market development over the past 24 hours has been the sharp increase in rate cut probabilities for next week’s FOMC meeting. After falling to just a 14% likelihood of a 50bps cut, the odds jumped to over 40% in after-hours trading following a large trade betting on two cuts. This shift may be linked to the optimism around the potential for two cuts conveyed...
INITIAL THESIS – SENATE MORE IMPORTANT THAN MANY RECOGNIZE This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction...
MARKET UPDATE August PPI data was released this morning, with both MoM Core and Headline readings coming in slightly above expectations, sparking a rally in rates and gold and likely confirming only 25bps of rate cuts next week. Equities are gaining following the data, with the SPY -0.06% and QQQ -0.90% both gaining by more than 0.50%. Crypto is mostly higher, with total crypto market cap gaining 1.13%. BTC -1.70% is trading just...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CPI came in slightly above market expectations, primarily driven by persistent shelter costs, though these were partially offset by deflationary energy prices. As a result, rate cut expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting have dropped to 25 basis points. Following the CPI release, crypto markets, along with other risk assets, initially sold off as the market digested the data. However, prices have since rebounded, with BTC -1.70% trading...
In today's video, we discuss the current market psychology leading up to tomorrow's CPI release, highlighting key indicators pointing to a potentially cooler print. We also discuss the implications of this evening's presidential debate, and take a closer look at Helium (HNT), the altcoin that has demonstrated outsized strength with high trading volumes over the past month. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -1.70%
MARKET UPDATE Equity indices are relatively flat in Tuesday’s trading, with the SPY -0.06% and QQQ -0.90% decreasing about 0.10%. Crypto is showing slight declines, with BTC -1.70% trading around $57k and ETH -3.65% trading in the mid $2,300s. TON -6.90% has been a top performer this week as founder and CEO Pavel Durov has been released from French authorities, and he delivered a statement addressing the situation. TON -6.90% has gained 9.17% so far this...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Following an overnight recovery, crypto prices have once again aligned with equities, which have drifted lower since the U.S. market open. BTC -1.70% is hovering around $55,000, ETH -3.65% is just below $2,300, and SOL -4.80% is trading just under $130. Before the broader market pullback over the past couple of hours, several altcoins had been outperforming, with AAVE -5.63% leading among the top 50. AAVE has continued to show strength...
WEEKLY RECAP Funding totals were low in a short week following the Labor Day holiday. Total funding fell by 66% from $193 million to $67 million, while total deal count fell 47% from 30 to 16. Only three categories tallied disclosed funding this week, with Gaming being the leader at $39 million. Infrastructure was the leader from a deal count perspective, with five deals comprising 31% of the total. There...