Crypto Research
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Back in December 2019, I started saying we’re in a “CRYPTO GOLDILOCKS ECONOMY” THAT’S “NOT TOO HOT AND NOT TOO COLD” – meaning, markets weren’t expensive, but they weren’t cheap either. THAT CHANGED THIS WEEK. Corona. Macro. Panic. Reason aside, Bitcoin’s price retraced to a low of $3,858 and now sits around $5,400, and its Market Cap / Cumulative Mining Revenue Ratio has fallen to 5.3x. As an investor in...
THE HEADLINES [Members Area Crypto] BOE LOOKING FOR FEEDBACK ON DIGITAL CURRENCIES www. finextra. com The Bank of England knows “the way we pay is changing” and has released a Discussion Paper on central bank digital currencies. The BoE is calling on the public to share feedback on the challenges and risks associated with the BoE’s efforts to provide an innovated digital money while meeting its objective of maintaining monetary...
BTC stress tests its 2015-2020 uptrend at 7.7K. ETH tests key level at 180
Cryptocurrencies abruptly u-turned over weekend sending most back to key technical levels as global macro worries intensified. BTC is now testing important support at 7.5-7.7K that needs to hold to keep its longer-term uptrend intact, while ETH is also testing a key level at 180. BTC – BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AS BTC IS OVERSOLD SHORT-TERM AT LONG-TERM TREND SUPPORT. Last week, we highlighted BTC was likely starting a short-term...
THE HEADLINES [Members Area Crypto] JAPANESE FINANCIAL WATCHDOG INTRODUCES GLOBAL PLATFORM TO PROMOTE BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY www. finextra. com Japan’s financial watchdog, the Financial Services Agency, is launching a global network to provide blockchain stakeholders with an open and neutral platform for multiparty dialogue. The Blockchain Governance Initiative Network” (BGIN - pronounced ‘BEGIN’) hopes to develop a common language and understandings among stakeholders with diverse perspectives, and build academic anchors through...
THE HEADLINES [Members Area Crypto] BILL CLARIFYING CRYPTO REGULATORS INTRODUCED TO HOUSE www.s3. cointelegraph. com The new Crypto-Currency Act of 2020 has been introduced by Representative Paul Gosar (R-AZ). The revision of a 2019 draft, aims to clarify which federal agencies will regulate digital currencies and subsequently require these agencies to notify the public of any necessary requirements needed to create or trade digital assets. [Members Area Crypto] BELARUS WANTS...
March 6 _Fair Value: $13,000-$15,0000 _ If ever the view that “crypto is a macro hedge” is to be put to the test, then 2020 would seem to be that time. Thanks to the fear and loathing created by the outbreak of the coronavirus, the ripple effects of COVID-19, as it’s known, is far reaching. We are seeing pure havoc in fixed income markets (the yield on the U.S. Treasury...
SUMMARY MARKET ANALYSIS:Crypto markets rebounded modestly this week and remain the best performing asset class YTD. PORTFOLIO STRATEGY:Crypto Emerging Markets are influenced by broader financial conditions but its idiosyncratic drivers and macro market cycle mater most long term. WINNERS & LOSERSWinner: Tron's founder Justin Sun who executed a hostel takeover of Steem's decentralized social media network.Loser: Bitmex after the FCA issued a notice that the firm has been operating in...
BTC’S LONG-TERM PROFILE REMAINS POSITIVE Despite BTC’s volatile swings through 2018 into 2020, the longer-term chart profile remains positive with BTC in narrowing consolidation above its long-term uptrend. Granted, a series of lower highs (12/2018, 06/2019, 2019, 02/2020) remains in place and break below BTC’s 2015-2018 uptrend (7.7-8K) would be an obvious technical concern/problem. However, a break has yet to develop and a move above the 10-11K resistance band would...
SUMMARY MARKET STRATEGY:Crypto markets had a tough week as global risky assets sold off on coronavirus fears but crypto investors shouldn't panic. WINNERS & LOSERS:Winner: Argon's Tim Draper investment may hold promise for future crypto legal governance.Loser: Ripple's illegal security lawsuit claims may mean potential upside isn't justified by regulatory risks. WEEKLY RANT:Why the announcement "Startup Tokenizes $2.2B in Commercial Real Estate Through Polymath" makes me cringe. FINANCING ACTIVITY:Copper. co...
FUNDSTRAT CRYPTO FX INDICES: A-D LINES ARE IN CONFIRMED UPTRENDS WITH MID-CAP CONTINUING TO LEAD Cryptocurrency breadth, as measured by the Fundstrat FS CryptoFX Advance-Decline lines continue to build positively across the large-cap (FX10), mid-cap (FX40) and small-cap (FX 250) indices. The performance of the FS CryptoFX40 Mid-cap index versus the FX10 Large-cap index is particularly noteworthy, having established a series of higher highs confirming a longer-term upside trend reversal....
January 29, 2020 One of the biggest asset class surprises last year was the 92% gain in Bitcoin (BTC). Twelve months ago, few besides our shop would have credited such an outcome. So far in 2020 the cryptocurrency is continuing to roar ahead. Though it’s early in the year, BTC is up 26% YTD, already the best showing of any major asset class, and building on that big 2019 move....
