Rope-a-Dope
A Week of Table-Turning Developments
ETF Summer
Over the last five years, there have been numerous calls for traditional financial institutions to enter the crypto industry. Once total crypto market cap surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, the industry’s investors, developers, and followers began to discuss how crypto had transformed into an investable asset class and projected a significant influx of institutional investors.
Until recently, several signs suggested that institutions were showing interest, and by some measures, one could argue that they had already begun to penetrate the industry. Major banks are now starting to cover crypto and offer ancillary services related to this domain. However, this past week, we witnessed the most significant foray by a major traditional finance player into crypto since the industry's inception.
On June 15th, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, filed for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This move by BlackRock has had a profound impact on market sentiment, prompting other institutions to take action. Following the BlackRock filing, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie, and Bitwise have all followed suit. Each of these applicants has made previous un...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
