A Tale of Two Markets
AI Skewing the Picture
Previous observations highlighted how the decline in crypto prices signaled a temporary liquidity peak, potentially tied to the impending debt ceiling deal. Correlations between BTC, gold, and equities illustrated BTC's sensitivity to liquidity changes. As anticipated, BTC/Gold and BTC/equities (excluding AI-related names) correlations are now strengthening, with gold and equities tracking BTC's lead.
Over the past few weeks, our discussions have centered around an observed shift in market dynamics, seemingly prompted by the ongoing debt ceiling standoff and the potential for a resolution in the coming weeks. Recognizing the beginning of a downturn in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market about a month ago, we engaged in conversations regarding raising cash. This decision was informed by the crypto market's tendency to detect alterations in market liquidity conditions ahead of other asset classes. Consequently, it is understandable that there was a delay before gold and the equities market began to perceive impending changes.
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CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
