QT, We Hardly Knew Ya

Mar 17, 2023 • 6 Min Read

It might not “technically” be QE, but QT is Over

A common refrain among Bitcoin advocates has been “short the banks, long BTC.” Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen the closest manifestation of this trade since the inception of the Bitcoin network.

There remain apparent concerns about the health of the US banking system, specifically related to the duration mismatch issues plaguing traditional banking institutions and depositors' resulting willingness (or lack thereof) to hold their uninsured deposits in regional banks. 

Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) realized a loss on their securities available for sale due to purchasing too many low-yielding, long-dated bonds for their liquid portfolio and needing to roll their book into higher-yielding assets. 

Unrealized Gains Losses on Bank Balance Sheets:

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Now, with the understanding that the FDIC will back any deposits with a bank that is qualitatively deemed a “systemic risk,” we are witnessing reasonable trepidation around keeping deposits at non-GSIB banking institutions. The equity markets broadly continue to be weighed down by these fears of systemic banking failures. 

The Fed has responded to this banking crisis by creating a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to offer loans of ...

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