World Cup Trade Ideas
Idiosyncratic Opportunities Abound
The euphoric part of the bull market for crypto was largely about finding the fastest horse paired with one’s relative risk appetite. Unfortunately, in a bear market, most horses, notably the weaker or tired ones, no longer want to race. However, the past few months have revealed that ample opportunities exist to find the few horses that have some giddy-up in them.
The two environments require fundamentally different approaches. The latter requires a more active investing style focused on managing risk. Recently we have tried to surface more of these short-term, tactical opportunities to clients.
Last week, we raised an intriguing bull case for DOGE and SHIB. We provided the caveat that any denouncement of DOGE integration into Twitter could derail the trade and that any spike in SHIB should be de-risked expeditiously. Both assets went on to have a phenomenal weekend, with DOGE nearly doubling and SHIB rising over 30% from the Friday close. We are resurfacing this trade merely to highlight that opportunities are still out there despite the macro backdrop.
MATIC Outperforms
On the topic of idiosyncratic performance, MATIC has displayed some impressive price action in recent weeks as the Polygon business development team cont...Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
