A Crypto Investor’s Guide to Election Day
Trump Maintains a Slight Edge, But It’s Essentially a Tossup
Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States.
As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations.
Odds for both candidates have oscillated around the 50% threshold since the race restarted back in July, with both experiencing periods of optimism within their respective bases. However, neither has been able to conclusively pull away from their opponent. Thus, we enter election day with Trump maintaining a slight edge, but in a probabilistic sense it remains a tossup.
The Destination Remains Unchanged
Today, I want to once again state our higher-level views as they pertain to the election and then discuss how we expect the market to react post-election.
First, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the current electoral math makes it extremely likely that the Senate flips Republican. In our view, this is unequivocally good for the crypto industry, as Senate leadership (Brown, Warren) has been outwardly hostile toward the industry. They are...Reports you may have missed
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CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
INDICATIONS OF FROTH Given the violent nature of the past month’s rally, we have been vigilant for signs of a local top. It would be disingenuous to claim that some qualitative "top signals" are not flashing right now. XRP—which we noted as a possible election trade back in October—with only 1–2k daily active addresses (vs ETH's over 400k, source: Artemis), is ripping toward new highs while influencers take to TikTok...
