Lessons From the Presidential Debate and a Look Ahead to the FOMC
Initial Thesis – Senate More Important Than Many Recognize
This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction markets indicating that Harris emerged as the victor, challenging initial market sentiment.
While the long-term impact on polls remains uncertain given the considerable time until election day, the verbal sparring between Harris and Trump—both of whom obviously hold divergent views on crypto—provided valuable insights on how BTC might trade in the months post-election in the event of a Harris victory.
All things being equal, the resulting price action in the event of a Trump victory seems rather obvious at this point. Trump's campaign has consistently expressed pro-crypto rhetoric and crypto was explicitly supported in the formal GOP platform. Thus, one should expect crypto markets to price in a “Trump Premium” should he win in November. There would also intuitively be a repricing higher of co...Unlock this article by joining our Community!
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