Crypto Market Update

Crypto began the final full week of September trading—historically the worst time of the year for the asset class—with a positive move higher. BTC briefly pushed above $64K during Sunday’s session, attempting to break through its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, ETH has quietly rallied 10% against BTC over the past five days, now trading above $2,660, while SOL has retreated to $144 after reaching $152 on Friday. Several altcoins have outperformed today, including AI-adjacent tokens like TAO and NEAR, alongside STX, AAVE, and IMX, each posting gains of 10% or more. This week will be shaped by a mix of growth and inflation data, with durable goods and GDP growth reports due Thursday, followed by core PCE and personal income/spending on Friday. In addition, there will be significant Fedspeak, with market participants watching closely for clues on whether the next rate hike will be 25 or 50 bps. While the DXY has ticked higher alongside rising rates, the MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, has fallen to its lowest level since mid-July—typically a favorable sign for crypto. Equities remain mixed, with the ^SPX 0.13%  gaining from strength in energy and discretionary sectors, though soft landing indicators like IWM and KRE are underperforming so far today.

ETF Inflows, Stablecoin Market Cap Records Another ATH

Last week, Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed midweek following the FOMC press conference but resumed into the weekend, with all spot ETFs collectively amassing nearly $400 million in net inflows. The current 5-day moving average now sits at just over $90 million. In contrast, spot ETH ETFs experienced another week of net outflows, totaling approximately $26 million across all funds. However, Thursday and Friday saw two consecutive days of inflows, albeit in the single-digit millions. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market cap continues to trend higher, with net aggregate inflows across all stablecoins reaching $955 million for the 7 days ending Sunday, September 22nd (source: DefiLlama). The total stablecoin market cap, excluding algorithmic stablecoins, surpassed $170 billion for the first time on Friday.

IBIT Options Approved by SEC

The SEC has granted approval to list and trade options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Nasdaq ISE will handle the listing and trading of these options, with the SEC fast-tracking the approval process. The SEC highlighted that these options will provide investors with improved risk management and hedging opportunities. However, the options will not go live until further approvals are secured from the OCC and CFTC. This approval is expected to boost liquidity for spot Bitcoin ETFs, potentially attracting larger investors. Additionally, we may see the launch of new covered call ETFs, appealing to investors seeking income alongside their exposure to BTC price movements.

Technical Strategy

Ethereum has managed to successfully turn higher vs. Bitcoin on a short-term basis, breaking out of a one-month downtrend, and ETHBTC is now trading at the highest levels since early September.   This looks to be a short-term development only, but DeMark exhaustion was present on the ETHBTC ratio on daily charts last week coinciding with the short-term low, not unlike what also happened in early August.  Unfortunately, no weekly signals are present,  and the larger downtrend on three-month charts hits near 0.045, directly above.  Overall, a brief reprieve in Ethereum outperformance vs. Bitcoin looks to be happening which might last another 3-5 days.   However, barring any meaningful intermediate-term progress, it looks right to likely sell into this, expecting a stalling out and a resumption in Bitcoin relative strength vs. Ethereum into/through October.

Daily Important Metrics Crypto Size Bullish signal is tied to the crypto market growing Market cap 2.24T +$40B(1.84%) BTC Dominance 56.29 % (-0.41%) Stablecoins Increase in circulating stablecoins is a Bullish signal In Circulation +$119B (0.02%) In Exchanges +$22B (-0.26%) BTC Metrics A decrease in Bitcoin on exchanges is bullish, indicates investors are moving coins to cold storage # BTC Exchanges +$3.0M (-0.03%) Funding Rates Positive funding rates indicate traders are Bullish Aggregate +0.6892(0.3645) Binance +0.2655(0.4157) Bitfinex 0.0000(-0.9836) Bitmex +0.6660(0.0383) ByBit +1.0000(0.9283) Deribit +0.6167(0.0753) Huobi +0.3214(0.3214) Kraken -0.4336(-0.9403) Mean +0.6892(0.3645) OKex +0.6435(0.2402) Sentiment BMI : 47 (100.00%) Futures A positive spread between Futures Prices and Spot Prices is Bullish CME Price $63,745(1.29%) Spot Basis +$3.69(0.01%) Volume 339,014(97.16%) Open Interest 299,966(-1.32%) Options all exchanges Higher open interest change in a bull market is bullish for the sector Volume 10,015(116.40%) Open Interest 291,133 (0.18%) Vol. Put/Call Ratio 1.47 (159.03%) OOI Put/Call Ratio 0.4940 (-0.11%) All metrics as of 2024-09-23 15:56:18 All Funding rates are in bps Crypto Prices Symbol Market Cap Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BTC $1.26T $63,539 1.48% 50.44% ETH $324B $2,693 4.96% 18.36% -21.33% SOL $68B $145 1.31% 42.30% -5.41% HNT $1.2B $7.51 1.05% -80.11% -86.78% DOGE $179,075 $0.0002 -1.92% -99.80% -99.87% All prices as of 2024-09-23 12:11:42 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) Symbol Prem. to Nav Last Price Daily Change Year to Date Relative to BTC YTD BITW -37.43% $29 1.19% 24.76% -17.07% ETHE -0.77% $23 5.55% 16.81% -22.35% News Quick Bits The Block Bitfarms and Riot Platforms reach settlement agreement in takeover saga Under the terms of the deal, Riot is prohibited from acquiring more than 20% of Bitfarms without prior board approval. The Block Travala expands booking support to Solana-based assets, offers SOL travel rewards Travala has integrated with Solana, expanding cryptocurrency booking support beyond Ethereum and BNB Chain. Market Data CoinDesk Digital Asset Funds See Second Consecutive Week of Inflows: CoinShares Bitcoin-linked products led with $284 million of inflows, while their ether equivalents saw outflows of $29 million. The Block Ethereum transaction fees surge even as active accounts fall to year-to-date lows Ethereum transaction fees have more than tripled since the start of the month amid an 11% decline in active accounts, according to our numbers. Regulation The Block SEC greenlights listing and trading options for BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF The SEC has approved BlackRock's proposal to list and trade options for its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. CoinDesk Sygnum Unit Receives Liechtenstein License as a Crypto Asset Service Provider The registration paves the way for the Switzerland and Singapore-based banking group to expand into the European Union and European Economic Area. Web 3.0 Coin Telegraph Powerledger integrates with Solana mainnet ecosystem Powerledger’s co-founder John Bulich believes the expansion emphasizes "that sustainability is a common goal that transcends ecosystems.” Australian energy tech company Powerledger has announced its expansion into the Solana ecosystem, claiming it shares common values with the blockchain network amid wider interest in Regenerative Finance (ReFi).“At the heart of both Powerledger and Solana is a shared vision of innovation, sustainability, and transparency — values that are becoming increasingly critical as the world shifts toward ReFi (Regenerative Finance) and sustainability,” a spokesperson for Powerledger told Cointelegraph on Sept. 21.ReFi aims to create economic systems that go beyond generating financial returns and focus on restoring and enhancing social, environmental and economic well-being. According to CoinGecko data, the total ReFi market capitalization stands at $110.57 million at the time of publication.Read more The Block Coinbase announces plan to bring cbBTC to Solana network The centralized digital asset exchange launched its version of wrapped bitcoin last week, after having teased the token in August.