Owning the Casino Stack: SOL, JTO, RAY, BONK (Core Strategy Rebalance)
SOL Outperformance
Last week, we highlighted the explosive activity on Solana as DEX volumes surpassed those on Ethereum, leading us to increase SOL's weighting in our Core Strategy. These elevated DEX volumes have persisted through this week, and SOL has dramatically outperformed, breaking out against ETH and gaining ground against BTC—all amid a sharp bond selloff and a rally in the DXY.
A significant portion of this volume has been driven by rampant speculation on memecoins. Today's note won't pontificate too much on the merits of memecoins, as we've previously expressed our view: the smaller memecoins are akin to a new iteration of casino games, while the more “established” ones serve as perpetual call options on market froth.
To be clear, Solana's traction extends beyond the memecoin frenzy. Our Core Strategy portfolio reflects this broader trend, with HNT being a featured asset. However, it's evident that the speculative aspects of on-chain activity are responsible for the current acceleration of capital flow onto Solana, serving as the primary driver of SOL's recent outperformance.
Given SOL's relative strength and its rising on-chain activity, we believe it's prudent to seek additional beta exposure in projects ...Reports you may have missed
SMALL CAP BREAKOUT A POSITIVE INDICATOR FOR BTC It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a...
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...
Crypto Receives a Boost from Strong Jobs Print, WULF Sells Hash Rate to Expand AI Capabilities
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market is moving higher today, lifted by stronger-than-expected jobs numbers. The BLS reported 254k jobs added last month, far exceeding the market estimate of 140k, while August's figures were revised up from 142k to 159k. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. In response, rates rallied, the DXY spiked, and the futures market largely priced out the possibility of a 50 bps rate...
CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
