Sentiment Sweet Spot (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Early Proof of “Catch-Up” Trade
Last week witnessed a significant development as traditional market participants, most notably BlackRock, entered the cryptocurrency space with a spot-based ETF application. This move not only carried implications for market structure but also sparked a noteworthy narrative shift. Despite Bitcoin's relative resilience to regulatory pressures compared to other cryptoassets, it still faced some performance drag. However, the entry of BlackRock, Citadel, and other prominent players into the market changed the perspective of U.S. market participants toward the asset class. This development attracted individuals back into the crypto market.
We think that bitcoin appears well-positioned to serve as investors' preferred "catch-up" trade to tech stocks. The rally of the Nasdaq index this year has been met with skepticism, leaving many investors on the sidelines. With the largest asset manager now entering the Bitcoin sphere, the narrative-driven momentum seems to be favoring Bitcoin in the latter half of the year.
This shift in sentiment among the public is reflected in fund flows. Digital asset investment products experienced their largest weekly inflows since July 2022, totaling $199 million. Bitcoin was the primary recipient, receiving $18...Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...