Rope-a-Dope
A Week of Table-Turning Developments
ETF Summer
Over the last five years, there have been numerous calls for traditional financial institutions to enter the crypto industry. Once total crypto market cap surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, the industry’s investors, developers, and followers began to discuss how crypto had transformed into an investable asset class and projected a significant influx of institutional investors.
Until recently, several signs suggested that institutions were showing interest, and by some measures, one could argue that they had already begun to penetrate the industry. Major banks are now starting to cover crypto and offer ancillary services related to this domain. However, this past week, we witnessed the most significant foray by a major traditional finance player into crypto since the industry's inception.
On June 15th, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, filed for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This move by BlackRock has had a profound impact on market sentiment, prompting other institutions to take action. Following the BlackRock filing, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie, and Bitwise have all followed suit. Each of these applicants has made previous un...Reports you may have missed
BTC DECOUPLING FROM EQUITIES Over the past two weeks, BTC has begun to decouple from other risk assets. While the broader macro environment experienced choppy conditions from November 12th through yesterday, BTC has appeared indifferent to fluctuations in risk appetite, continuing its upward momentum and approaching the $100K milestone. A chart of BTC correlations highlights this decoupling, with sharp declines in its correlation to the QQQ, SPX, and IWM. The...
Market Lacks Convincing Signs of Market Froth, Major Demand Side Catalyst for CORE (Core Strategy Rebalance)
FROTH OR REPRICING? A heated debate is unfolding among crypto investors: have we just hit a local top, or will the breakout after eight months of consolidation continue higher through year-end? The crypto market has surged rapidly, as we anticipated, but the key question remains—can this rally sustain itself, or is it nearing exhaustion? Anecdotally, we are seeing renewed interest in crypto from casual observers. Friends and family are once...
TRUMP MAINTAINS A SLIGHT EDGE, BUT IT’S ESSENTIALLY A TOSSUP Well, it's here, folks – the moment that markets have been building up towards since January—the general election to decide the next President of the United States. As our clients know, we have been closely tracking polling and prediction market trends over the past several months, and these have served as a key input in our recommendations. Odds for both...
BTC ETFS SEE MASSIVE INFLOWS: IS CRYPTO NATIVE CAPITAL SIDELINED? BTC ETFs saw over $2.2 billion in net inflows across all spot ETFs from Monday through Wednesday of this week—the largest three-day sum of inflows since the products launched in January—bringing the five-day moving average to north of $500 million. This is certainly impressive and speaks to the explosive breakout we have seen this week. Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat We've...
