Tactical Opportunity Narrowing

Discussed in today’s video:

• Spot buying not translating into price strength: Strategy acquired approximately $3.4B of BTC over the past two weeks, yet Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum above ~$95k, suggesting ample incremental supply and/or weakening marginal demand.
• Regulatory optimism fading: Senate market structure efforts remain alive but face meaningful industry pushback and procedural hurdles, making them unlikely to serve as a near-term catalyst.
• Rate expectations becoming a headwind: Strong U.S. growth and rising uncertainty around future Fed leadership and FOMC composition are pushing forward rate expectations higher, tightening financial conditions at the margin.
• Geopolitical friction resurfacing: Tariff threats tied to Greenland negotiations have coincided with simultaneous weakness in Treasuries and the dollar, signaling capital rotation away from U.S. assets. Higher yields and higher tariffs are negative for crypto on the margin.
• Relative asset signals favor gold: Gold continues to outperform on structural tailwinds such as sovereign demand and geopolitical hedging, delaying any rotation into Bitcoin.
• Positioning remains optimistic: Volatility, credit spreads, and survey data continue to point to complacency, with limited evidence of meaningful de-risking.
• Bottom Line: I am hesitant to cut risk immediately, with BTC back near its recent trendline. However, the lack of follow-through despite strong spot buying, rising macro and geopolitical uncertainty, and still-bullish positioning suggests the near-term tactical opportunity is waning.

Tickers in this video: BTC