Today's Follow-Through Strengthens Case for Crypto Rally

Discussed in today’s video:

• Big Volume = Seller Absorption: IBIT posted its highest volume since inception on Friday, likely reflecting significant seller demand being absorbed. Today’s follow-through reinforced that signal.
• Forced Sellers Likely Gone (For Now): BTC finally provided beta to the S&P 500 again, tracking broader risk assets. That’s a strong indication that the forced/motivated sellers who dominated the past few weeks are no longer active.
• U.S. Spot Demand Improving: The Coinbase–Binance spread flipped into a clear U.S. premium during market hours for the first time in a while. The 7-day average of the Coinbase premium/discount has flattened, suggesting U.S. selling pressure is easing.
• Perp Market Shifting: Funding rates dipped negative and open interest has flattened. The bounce appears spot-led rather than leverage-driven, and bears may be getting complacent.
• Sentiment Looks Washed Out: Media coverage has turned aggressively negative, historically a decent counter-signal that bearish sentiment may be stretched.
• Probability of Fed Cuts Increases: Dovish Fed comments have pushed December 25-bps cut odds above 70%.

Tickers in this video: BTC 1.82%