Growth Data Supportive of Q4 Rally, Intramonth Trends Compounding Crypto Selloff

Discussed in today’s video:

• Growth surprises to the upside:  Durable goods (+2.9% vs –0.5% est.) and GDP revision (3.8% vs 3.3% est.) show stronger growth. Yields rose and risk assets fell on concerns of a hawkish Fed. Contrary to price action, this reinforces my Q4 view.
• Fed cares more about labor: Two cuts are still priced for this calendar year, with the Fed balancing inflation and labor risks. A growth-positive backdrop with a dovish Fed remains supportive of risk-taking.
• Front Half of Month Sees Better Returns: Since BTC ETF launch, returns skew heavily to the first half of each month, with relative weakness in the back half.
• Positioning clearing: About $18B in open interest has been flushed. Leverage is still elevated but improving, and one more flush is possible before conditions stabilize.

Tickers in this video: BTC -1.92%