Near-Term Risks Meet Medium-Term Opportunity

Discussed in today’s video:

• Near-term risks: possible Fed “mistake”, upcoming TGA refill that may drain liquidity, unfavorable August–September seasonality, and capital flows turning negative.
• Cut odds rise: Friday’s weak NFP and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation meaningfully increased the probability of a September rate cut.
• Medium-term opportunity: A rate cut into a slowing but growing economy, steady unemployment, and above-target inflation is a bullish mix for crypto.
• Price action check: Monday’s rebound was encouraging. A Bitcoin break above its down-trend line and a fresh ETHBTC local high would nullify near-term caution.
• Portfolio stance: Remain risk-aware by holding 80% BTC, market-weight ETH, slight SOL overweight, small positions in other alts.

Tickers in this video: BTC