Buying More SOL, Plus Another Election Trade Idea (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Small Cap Breakout a Positive Indicator for BTC
It is a common refrain among passive industry observers that BTC is strongly correlated with large-cap tech stocks, leading some to view BTC as a quasi-leveraged version of QQQ. However, we think this perspective is limiting. If you were to rely on QQQ as a barometer for crypto market conditions, you would experience several periods of underperformance over the course of a liquidity cycle.
For instance, in Q2 of this year, when the market was awash with bullish fervor around NVIDIA and AI, tech stocks soared on solid earnings and growth projections. Yet, BTC performed rather poorly during this period. This disparity arises because BTC trades according to shifts in monetary and fiscal conditions. Historically, these conditions have also affected large-cap tech stocks for extended periods, but they are not always in sync, such as during the earnings-driven rally of earlier this year.
Reports you may have missed
Storm-Driven Claims, Political Shifts, and Seasonality Point to Bullish Crypto Setup for Late October
MARKET INCREASES PROBABILITY OF 'NO LANDING' Over the past week, a series of stronger-than-expected economic data releases have significantly impacted market sentiment:ROBUST ISM SERVICES PMI: The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54.9, significantly above the forecasted 51.7.STRONG NON-FARM PAYROLLS (NFP): The economy added 254,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000.FOMC MINUTES INDICATE DIVERGENCE: The FOMC minutes revealed non-consensus at the September meeting regarding whether to cut rates by...
Crypto Receives a Boost from Strong Jobs Print, WULF Sells Hash Rate to Expand AI Capabilities
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market is moving higher today, lifted by stronger-than-expected jobs numbers. The BLS reported 254k jobs added last month, far exceeding the market estimate of 140k, while August's figures were revised up from 142k to 159k. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. In response, rates rallied, the DXY spiked, and the futures market largely priced out the possibility of a 50 bps rate...
CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
MARKET UPDATE August PCE data came in slightly below expectations, with Core MoM PCE reading 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected, reaffirming that inflation is receding steadily. Debates over the size of the Fed’s next rate cut have already begun, with odds for 50bps increasing slightly after the PCE data, rising to 52.1% compared to 49.3% yesterday. Stocks are relatively flat to end the week, with the SPY 0.40% gaining 0.14% and the...
