Unpopular opinion --> We expect stable/rising prices. Setup for Bitcoin and crypto is "less bad" into the weekend = good.
STRATEGY: Crypto De-leveraging unlikely this weekend = stable/up pricesFor the past two weekends, Crypto and bitcoin prices tanked with regulatory crackdowns by China being the primary downside catalyst. And because crypto is so visible and potentially linked to equities, these sell-offs put many investors on edge. However, in a break of the pattern, we think odds favor Bitcoin / crypto to be stable/higher over the coming Memorial Day weekend. Why? We think the setup into this weekend is incrementally "less bad" for Bitcoin. And as Tom Luddy, Vice Chairman of JPMorgan Asset Management, has told me multiple times in my career --> "less bad is good"These are mostly "soft observations":- Crypto investors massive deleveraged over the past two weeks = "less bad"- Crypto investors anticipated weekend weakness, reduced risk over the past 36 hours = "less bad"- The technical picture for Bitcoin simply doesn't look as weak as it did two weeks ago = "less bad"- Crypto equities actually rose this week, and many show bottoming patterns -- think $SI $MOGO $MSTR $COIN = "less bad"The last point is somewhat notable. Recall, these crypto equities were the first to fall, peaking 3 weeks ahead of Bitcoin's actual peak. In fact, Bitcoin price began to...
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Crypto markets are up slightly on the day, BTC -0.52% has risen 0.54%, and ETH -0.70% has risen 0.15%. Interestingly, the ETH Dominance metric, a metric that measures Etheruem's market cap compared to the rest of the crypto market, has reached its highest levels since the Merge last year and at the peak of the 2021 bull market, indicating that Ethereum is extremely relatively strong to the rest of the market. Altcoins...
Today, we're witnessing a return of familiar correlations as Bitcoin, gold, and equities all stage a mini rally. Today's major macro news was the leap in jobless claims to 261k, a level not reached since October 2021 and notably above consensus. Advocates of continued rate hikes frequently point to the consistent strength of the labor market. However, this new data could signal the onset of a softening jobs market beginning...
INVESTMENT THESIS Given the rise in U.S. treasury yields (5.00% - 5.25% at the time of writing) and the suction of liquidity that ensued from risk assets, perhaps the most useful metric to gauge product-market fit at this stage of the bear market is Total Value Locked (TVL). Essentially, the consideration that is front and center in the minds of savvy investors is, ‘Would this investment or strategy yield better...
Explore the latest market dynamics surrounding liquidity, short-term bills, and capital flow and their potential effect on asset prices. Stay informed about the latest treasury issuances and hear expert analysis on the crypto market and our forward outlook. Don't miss this insightful video for investors! _*Recorded on June 5, 2023_
