VIX + Bitcoin = more of a risk on day than it appears - FS Insight
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VIX + Bitcoin = more of a risk on day than it appears

May 19, 2021

STRATEGY: VIX barely surged... meh.  Bitcoin = leading indicator? >50% it bottomed
I am to share some unstructured market commentary today.  Today is one of the days where it is apparent that the linkage between Bitcoin + digital assets and financial markets increased significantly over the past year.  And given the wild moves today, I thought it appropriate to send out some post-closing thoughts (not in any particular order):

- VIX surged to nearly 26 today but ended the day basically flat
- VIX has little energy to surge higher and lower than the 28 last week
- If I "squint" I am seeing an H&S (head and shoulders) on the VIX
- If it manages to break the "neckline" ~17, VIX going to move to the low teens
- This would be very very risk-on

- Overnight, two things triggered panic- Reuters rehashed an old story of China ban (China ban) -- nothing new- concerns about BlockFi liquidity given erroneous rewards being sent (BlockFi story)- But this caused a healthy shakeout- Bitcoin narrative has splintered in 2021 given enormous wallet growth- many new to crypto are not drawn to "sound money"- lots of leverage offered by exchanges = liquidations of newbies- During the 2015-2017 Bitcoin rally, 9 declines of >20%, 5 declines >30%, so this is a normal course-...

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