Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The most notable market development over the past 24 hours has been the sharp increase in rate cut probabilities for next week’s FOMC meeting. After falling to just a 14% likelihood of a 50bps cut, the odds jumped to over 40% in after-hours trading following a large trade betting on two cuts. This shift may be linked to the optimism around the potential for two cuts conveyed...
INITIAL THESIS – SENATE MORE IMPORTANT THAN MANY RECOGNIZE This week, we witnessed what was the first – and potentially final – presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Anticipation for this event was high, with the public initially favoring Trump, as reflected in prediction markets. This preference was largely attributed to Harris's lackluster debate track record. However, the dynamics shifted during the debate itself, with reactions in prediction...
MARKET UPDATE August PPI data was released this morning, with both MoM Core and Headline readings coming in slightly above expectations, sparking a rally in rates and gold and likely confirming only 25bps of rate cuts next week. Equities are gaining following the data, with the SPY -0.46% and QQQ -1.26% both gaining by more than 0.50%. Crypto is mostly higher, with total crypto market cap gaining 1.13%. BTC 2.40% is trading just...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CPI came in slightly above market expectations, primarily driven by persistent shelter costs, though these were partially offset by deflationary energy prices. As a result, rate cut expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting have dropped to 25 basis points. Following the CPI release, crypto markets, along with other risk assets, initially sold off as the market digested the data. However, prices have since rebounded, with BTC 2.40% trading...
In today's video, we discuss the current market psychology leading up to tomorrow's CPI release, highlighting key indicators pointing to a potentially cooler print. We also discuss the implications of this evening's presidential debate, and take a closer look at Helium (HNT), the altcoin that has demonstrated outsized strength with high trading volumes over the past month. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 2.40%
MARKET UPDATE Equity indices are relatively flat in Tuesday’s trading, with the SPY -0.46% and QQQ -1.26% decreasing about 0.10%. Crypto is showing slight declines, with BTC 2.40% trading around $57k and ETH 7.20% trading in the mid $2,300s. TON -25.98% has been a top performer this week as founder and CEO Pavel Durov has been released from French authorities, and he delivered a statement addressing the situation. TON -25.98% has gained 9.17% so far this...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Following an overnight recovery, crypto prices have once again aligned with equities, which have drifted lower since the U.S. market open. BTC 2.40% is hovering around $55,000, ETH 7.20% is just below $2,300, and SOL 3.62% is trading just under $130. Before the broader market pullback over the past couple of hours, several altcoins had been outperforming, with AAVE 15.05% leading among the top 50. AAVE has continued to show strength...
WEEKLY RECAP Funding totals were low in a short week following the Labor Day holiday. Total funding fell by 66% from $193 million to $67 million, while total deal count fell 47% from 30 to 16. Only three categories tallied disclosed funding this week, with Gaming being the leader at $39 million. Infrastructure was the leader from a deal count perspective, with five deals comprising 31% of the total. There...
MARKET UPDATE Risk assets are selling off following the release of Non-Farm Payrolls data this morning, showing 142k payrolls added in August compared to 165k expected, along with June and July numbers being revised sharply lower. The data has fueled recession fears while also sparking uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path and whether they will cut rates by 50bps or 25bps this month. Markets are currently leaning towards 25bps, assigning...
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
In today's video, we discuss the increasing near-term risks as demonstrated by the disconnect between real yields and bitcoin, and by a rising MOVE index. We also talk about why we remain optimistic heading into Q4. Last but not least, we discuss the latest Core Strategy rebalance. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 2.40%
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA SKEWS TOWARD HARD-LANDING For this week’s note, we will begin by revisiting our market map for the near-term outlook on crypto. Over the past few months, the market has oscillated between expectations of a hard landing, soft landing, and no landing. However, since Powells’s speech at Jackson Hole, market outcomes have narrowed, leaving only the two scenarios furthest to the left—hard landing and soft landing. Both...
HNT Strength Persists Following $200k Burn, Broder Crypto Market Falls on Mixed Econ Data
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Jobless claims came in consistent with recent trends, while the ADP report fell well below market expectations, posting 99k jobs versus the 145k expected. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI showed another expansionary figure this month, continuing its divergence from ISM Manufacturing PMI. This initially provided a bounce in yields and risk assets, but over the past few hours, yields have started to roll over again while major...