Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Crypto began the final full week of September trading—historically the worst time of the year for the asset class—with a positive move higher. BTC -1.26% briefly pushed above $64K during Sunday's session, attempting to break through its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, ETH 1.95% has quietly rallied 10% against BTC -1.26% over the past five days, now trading above $2,660, while SOL -0.63% has retreated to $144 after reaching $152 on Friday....
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding increased 67% from $100 million to $167 million, while the deal count rose a modest 8% from 26 to 28. Infrastructure was the clear winner this week, raising $110 million across 14 deals, representing two-thirds of total funding and half of the total deal count. There were two CeFi deals totaling $9 million in funding, which remains a laggard category, tallying only 55 deals so far...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The last key macro risk for crypto markets this week was Friday’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, with concerns around potential rate hikes or hawkish commentary. However, the BOJ held rates steady, reaffirming its stance not to raise rates in unstable market conditions. In response, crypto markets surged overnight, with BTC -1.26% briefly crossing $64K, ETH 1.95% rising above $2,570, and SOL -0.63% climbing past $152. Since the U.S. market...
OUR VERDICT: POWELL NAILED IT Yesterday, Powell did exactly what risk assets wanted him to do—their actions were dovish, with a 50-bps cut and guidance for two more by year-end, but their economic commentary remained reassuring. Many bears point to this as hawkish, and since it's hawkish, it's implicitly bad for risk assets (including crypto). In our view, if Powell had taken a significantly more dovish stance than he did,...
MARKET UPDATE Yesterday’s FOMC meeting resulted in the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 bps, and Fed Chair Powell striking an optimistic tone about the state of the U.S. economy. Risk assets are rallying today, with crypto leading the charge. BTC -1.26% has gained to $63.7k and ETH 1.95% is approaching $2,500. Altcoins are seeing outsized rallies, with TIA 25.88% and DYM 15.26% outperforming, with both gaining over 14% today. APT 1.20% has similarly...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Crypto assets are trading lower ahead of today's crucial FOMC press conference, with BTC -1.26% dipping back below $60,000, ETH 1.95% falling under $2,300, and SOL -0.63% down to $127. The only token among the top 50 in the green is SUI -2.12% , following its USDC -0.01% launch announcement. Major equity indices are also in the red after the release of relatively strong housing data this morning, which is contributing to growing...
MARKET UPDATE Crypto has gained sharply ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, at which the Fed is expected to begin its easing cycle. There is still uncertainty on the magnitude of the first rate cut, with markets pricing a 61% probability of 50bps as of this morning. BTC -1.26% has risen from $58k to $61k and ETH 1.95% has risen from the high $2,200s to $2,370. SUI -2.12% is outperforming today following news that...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The crypto market has moved lower over the past 24 hours, with BTC -1.26% dropping back near the $58k level, ETH 1.95% just below $2,300, and SOL -0.63% once again testing the $130 mark. Yields have started the week lower ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, where investors are currently anticipating a 50 bps rate cut, according to the Fed funds futures market. Equities started the morning broadly in the...
WEEKLY RECAP Funding activity bounced back from last week’s muted totals, with total funding rising 44% from $67 million to $96 million and deal count increasing 56% from 16 to 25. DeFi was the leading category from both a fundraising and deal count perspective, raising $44 million across 11 deals. This week's largest deal was a DeFi investment – Huma Finance raised $28 million in a Series A round to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE The most notable market development over the past 24 hours has been the sharp increase in rate cut probabilities for next week’s FOMC meeting. After falling to just a 14% likelihood of a 50bps cut, the odds jumped to over 40% in after-hours trading following a large trade betting on two cuts. This shift may be linked to the optimism around the potential for two cuts conveyed...