Crypto Research
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CORE STRATEGY Crypto’s recent underperformance relative to equities, coupled with a sharp BTC-SPX correlation breakdown, is a data point worth watching. We’re not rushing to de-risk, but we are monitoring the setup closely. The trade war legal saga has injected more uncertainty into markets but is also likely to result in a less aggressive tariff regime. This is disinflationary in the near-term, may widen the deficit further, but could challenge...
MAY RECAP After April saw a multi-year high in monthly funding, May’s total funding cooled significantly to $553 million, while deal count held relatively steady at 77 deals. Despite lower funding, stablecoin/payments related companies were a bright spot in May, with companies such as Plasma (DotM), Conduit, and Beam all raising capital. Infrastructure accounted for nearly three-quarters of total funding and about half of all deals. DeFi was the second...
In today’s update, we break down crypto’s underperformance relative to equities, highlighting a key correlation rollover that has historically signaled major market turning points. While it’s too early to turn outright bearish, the setup warrants close attention. We also cover the latest legal developments in the U.S. trade war, implications for macro positioning, and why Ethereum remains a relative bright spot despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness. TICKERS IN...
Markets rebounded over the weekend after Trump signaled progress on EU trade talks, helping crypto regain its footing. In today’s update, we break down the sovereign bond rally sparked by Japan’s issuance shift, highlight a new corporate Bitcoin buyer, and explore why ETH may be setting up for further outperformance. We also dive into why crypto underperformed equities during the U.S. session. Plus, a look at Bitcoin’s latest golden cross...
Unlike in Q1/early Q2, today’s trade news doesn’t yet warrant a more cautious stance. Trump’s surprise call for 50% EU tariffs briefly pressured crypto, but risk gauges remained calm, and Bitcoin held up relatively well. Strength in high-yield credit, a steady VIX, a firm SOL/BTC ratio, and a fresh Bitcoin golden cross all suggest bulls are still in control. With deficits back in focus and gold rallying, the macro backdrop...
CORE STRATEGY Crypto continues to benefit from supportive conditions, and the near-term setup favors continuation. A new golden cross has been triggered for BTC, with post-2020 signals showing an 83% 90-day win rate and a 19% median return. FTX creditor repayments, totaling $5 billion, are underway and may recycle capital back into crypto markets, boosting risk appetite. Flows remain strong. ETF demand is steady, the Coinbase premium persists, CME basis...
Bitcoin keeps climbing as ETF inflows stay strong, the Coinbase premium holds, and CME basis widens. A single whale on Hyperliquid is riding a 40× long worth $830 million with a $100k liquidation line, a pocket of high leverage in an otherwise tame market. With spot ETF allocations growing and the Genius stablecoin bill moving toward a full Senate vote after the Memorial Day recess, the backdrop remains bullish. https://vimeo....
Bitcoin just logged a stealth all-time high weekly close, and ETH is showing signs of relative strength. In this video, we explore the growing “buy-the-dip” mentality, Abraxas Capital’s ETH accumulation, and what low funding rates and volatilities say about market positioning. We also break down the renewed optimism around the Senate’s stablecoin bill and why it could unlock broader crypto legislation. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.93%
Funding Rates Suggest an Unpopular BTC Rally, ETH Has More Room to Run (Core Strategy Rebalance)
CORE STRATEGY While the market has repriced quite substantially to reflect optimism over trade, we believe further upside could come from ensuing changes in tax and regulatory policy. In the House’s latest bill, more than $4 trillion in tax cuts have been proposed, with just $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. This implies continued fiscal expansion, which is stimulative and, all else equal, positive for crypto. Source: Artemis, Fundstrat CHANGES: INCREASING...
