Crypto Research
1,847 Results
In today’s video, we discuss how, while we are not completely “out of the woods,” today’s development sets up crypto success over the next 1-2 months and would look for a breakout or retrace to add risk to our Core Strategy. _NOTE: This video was recorded late yesterday evening._ TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.64%
CORE STRATEGY Given today’s developments, we believe it will be appropriate to increase exposure in our Core Strategy (total long position from 50% to 75% long and increasing our relative altcoin weighting). That said, given the explosive nature of today’s move and the firm resistance BTC is testing, we think it is prudent to wait for either a retrace or a confirmed breakout before executing. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat BOND MARKET...
In today’s video, we discussed how crypto’s weekend selloff brought BTC in line with equities, highlighted signs of a potential relief rally including elevated volumes and market sensitivity to trade headlines, and explored why Treasury Secretary Bessent’s involvement in trade talks may boost market confidence. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.64%
MARCH RECAP March showed declines in private funding activity and represented the lowest monthly total for the first quarter. Total funding fell 16% from February’s $1 billion to $840 million, while total deal count dropped 9% from 116 to 106. Infrastructure was the leading category, representing 50% of funding and 42% of all deals. There have been more CeFi deals to start 2025, with 25 through the first quarter compared...
In today’s video, we break down both short-term (bearish) and long-term (very bullish) views on crypto following yesterday’s tariff announcements. We highlight the key developments that could unlock near-term upside and explain why we’re skeptical that Bitcoin’s recent relative strength will continue, all else being equal. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.64%
Despite improving liquidity conditions and favorable seasonality offering reasons for optimism, the ongoing trade war remains the dominant driver of crypto’s next move. As such, we believe it’s prudent to stay patient. We’re increasing our Core Strategy allocation to USDC to 50%, keeping altcoin exposure minimal as we assess the potential fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcements. While this may seem discouraging, the roadmap has become more straightforward: we...
In today’s video, we break down why the latest PMI print could be bearish for crypto, why the market’s ability to shake it off is encouraging, and how the options market continues to price in caution ahead of tomorrow’s big announcement. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 1.64%
In today’s video, we break down the evolving crypto setup heading into Q2—including the impact of end-of-quarter flows, MicroStrategy’s recent BTC purchase, and why the April 2nd tariff announcement remains the most important near-term driver of crypto prices. We also cover Circle’s IPO plans, BlackRock’s latest Bitcoin commentary, ETHBTC hitting post-COVID lows, and option market signals pointing to an imminent move. Lastly, we preview the key macro data releases on...
Still Cautious Ahead of April 2nd, Elevated Odds of a Decisive Near-Term Move (±15%)
While some of the risks that prompted our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most remain—with the ongoing trade war still the most pertinent. Therefore, we believe it remains prudent to exercise patience. That said, improving liquidity conditions, favorable seasonality, and the possibility of a budget-neutral BTC acquisition strategy offer reasons for optimism. Regardless of the direction, depressed implied volatility (BVIV < 50) suggests that a significant...