Crypto Research
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In today’s video, we break down both short-term (bearish) and long-term (very bullish) views on crypto following yesterday’s tariff announcements. We highlight the key developments that could unlock near-term upside and explain why we’re skeptical that Bitcoin’s recent relative strength will continue, all else being equal. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
Despite improving liquidity conditions and favorable seasonality offering reasons for optimism, the ongoing trade war remains the dominant driver of crypto’s next move. As such, we believe it’s prudent to stay patient. We’re increasing our Core Strategy allocation to USDC to 50%, keeping altcoin exposure minimal as we assess the potential fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcements. While this may seem discouraging, the roadmap has become more straightforward: we...
In today’s video, we break down the evolving crypto setup heading into Q2—including the impact of end-of-quarter flows, MicroStrategy’s recent BTC purchase, and why the April 2nd tariff announcement remains the most important near-term driver of crypto prices. We also cover Circle’s IPO plans, BlackRock’s latest Bitcoin commentary, ETHBTC hitting post-COVID lows, and option market signals pointing to an imminent move. Lastly, we preview the key macro data releases on...
Still Cautious Ahead of April 2nd, Elevated Odds of a Decisive Near-Term Move (±15%)
While some of the risks that prompted our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most remain—with the ongoing trade war still the most pertinent. Therefore, we believe it remains prudent to exercise patience. That said, improving liquidity conditions, favorable seasonality, and the possibility of a budget-neutral BTC acquisition strategy offer reasons for optimism. Regardless of the direction, depressed implied volatility (BVIV < 50) suggests that a significant...
In today's video, we discuss how a pair of articles and recent comments from Trump suggest the administration may be less willing to tolerate "short-term pain" than previously expected. This shift could give additional legs to the ongoing crypto rally. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
We Still Like Playing Defense, But Details on Budget-Neutral Strategies Could Give Prices A Boost
While some of the risks prompting our cautious stance in early February have been partially mitigated, most still persist—with the ongoing trade war being most pertinent. Thus, we believe it's prudent to remain patient. However, reading between the lines, there is a non-zero possibility that next week, we will receive material information regarding potential "budget-neutral" methods the US government could employ to acquire BTC. Depending on details revealed, this could...