Crypto Research
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BTC Performance During US Market Hours Suggests Govt Selling as a Key Factor in Lack of Upside, Keep an Eye on Prediction Markets
Macro conditions have been ideal for a rally, yet BTC has struggled to break out, underperforming equities. We suspect government sales of 10k seized BTC are a major contributor to this relative weakness. However, we believe this pressure will ease soon, reducing the short-term bearish outlook. Additionally, we explore shifting trends in the presidential prediction markets. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC 2.20%
MARKET UPDATE RISK ASSETS ARE MOVING LOWER IN TUESDAY TRADING AHEAD OF A DENSE REST OF THE WEEK FOR MACROECONOMIC EVENTS. After rallying above $61k, BTC 2.20% has dropped below $59k, and ETH 1.88% has followed suit, moving below $2,600. SOL 0.78% is underperforming today after the SEC reportedly rejected two 19b-4 filings for Solana spot ETFs under the assumption that Solana should be designated as a security. Tron (TRX -1.42% ) is one of...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC 2.20% continues to trade in a tight range, hovering just above $58K after retesting $60K over the weekend. Similarly, ETH 1.88% is moving sideways, currently just under $2,600, while SOL 0.78% is trading just over $142 after revisiting the mid-$130s late last week. Using perpetual futures funding rates as a gauge for market sentiment, it seems market participants remain cautious, with BTC's open interest-weighted funding rate flipping negative again...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding saw a notable increase from $82 million to $202 million, a 147% increase, while this week’s deal count was roughly in-line with the previous two weeks, notching 17 deals compared to 18. Infrastructure was the leading category in terms of fundraising, making up approximately two-thirds of the total with $137 million. CeFi was the next most funded category at $40 million, with the two companies receiving...
Uniswap Sponsors $2.5 Million Audit Competition, Flexa Launches Crypto Point-of-Sale Toolkit
MARKET UPDATE EQUITIES ARE SHOWING SLIGHT INCREASES TODAY AS INVESTORS WEIGH DISAPPOINTING HOUSING DATA AGAINST IMPROVED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND STEADY INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. The SPY 0.52% and QQQ 1.06% have both increased by approximately 0.2%. Crypto assets are mixed with BTC 2.20% and ETH 1.88% gaining following yesterday’s late-day selloff, while altcoins are broadly lower. Net flows this week have been muted for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing $3.5 million in outflows...
MACRO DATA POINTS TO A SOFT LANDING The global deleveraging event last week was driven by weakening economic expectations and rising fears of a potential policy error by the Federal Reserve. At the height of this uncertainty, the market priced in a 50 bps cut for September, as recession risks took center stage. However, in just a few days, the narrative has shifted. The market is now leaning back towards...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THE GOLDILOCKS ECONOMIC SCENARIO, WHERE INFLATION RECEDES WHILE THE ECONOMY AVOIDS A RECESSION, IS BACK IN VIEW AFTER STRONG RETAIL SALES DATA AND LIGHTER-THAN-EXPECTED JOBLESS CLAIMS HAVE EASED FEARS OF A FED POLICY ERROR. The SPY 0.52% has gained to $552, and the QQQ 1.06% has surged to $473, erasing all of August’s declines. Crypto assets are also increasing, with BTC 2.20% approaching $60k and ETH 1.88% trading near $2,670. Chainlink...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with core CPI at 0.17% month-over-month, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.19%. In our view, this is the best-case scenario, as it temporarily removes the "Fed policy error" trade from the market. This is evidenced by Fed funds futures, which have priced out cuts for this calendar year following the CPI release. Initially, crypto rallied alongside other risk assets,...
MKR surged, driven by the ETH rally and Grayscale’s MKR trust launch, reinforcing its position as our preferred ETH-adjacent alt ahead of MKR End Game. HNT also performed well, benefiting from its "network of networks" transition and new offloading partnerships. Despite doubling in value, it may be too early to take profits. The market now turns to tomorrow’s CPI print, with Monday’s inflation expectations and Tuesday’s PPI indicating a likely...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than expected at 0.1% month-over-month, compared to the anticipated 0.2%. This data has pushed rates and the DXY lower, fueling optimism ahead of tomorrow's CPI release as hopes for another disinflationary print grow. In response, BTC 2.20% has moved slightly higher, though it has yet to reclaim the $60k level. Meanwhile, ETH 1.88% has pulled back slightly from its quiet...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Prices have whipsawed over the past 24 hours as we enter a pivotal week of macro data releases. BTC 2.20% is moving back toward $60k after dipping lower following the US market open, while ETH 1.88% is trading just below $2,700, and SOL 0.78% is attempting to reclaim the $150 level lost over the weekend. Among the top 100 assets, major outperformers include HNT -1.40% , which continues its recent surge, SUI -0.01% ,...