Crypto Research
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MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO MARKETS EXTENDED LAST WEEK’S RALLY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH BTC BRIEFLY RISING ABOVE $65K AND ETH ABOVE $2.8K. They have trimmed some of their gains, with Bitcoin trading at $63.3k and Ethereum slightly above $2.7k. AI-related tokens have been outperforming ahead of Nvidia earnings set for this Wednesday. FET, RNDR, and AKT have gained 69%, 38%, and 25%, respectively over the last seven days. U.S. equities are...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding showed a slight decrease, falling from $211 million to $199 million, while the total deal count increased 37% from 19 deals to 26. Infrastructure was the leading category, totaling $156 million in funding across 12 deals and making up over three-quarters of the total amount. DeFi was the second leading category, with $26 million in funding, including SatLayer, a Bitcoin restaking solution similar to EigenLayer. This...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Risk assets are surging following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, signaling a shift in policy aimed at addressing potential weaknesses in the job market through rate cuts. The DXY has dropped significantly, reaching a new year-to-date low and approaching the 100 mark. Cryptoassets are rallying, with BTC nearing $62,000 as it works to break through its 50-day moving average, which has provided significant...
In today's video, we explain why the recent order book imbalance appears to have cleared, discuss the potential for a “Trump Premium” to be priced back into markets soon, and highlight why BTC miners with HPC capacity present an attractive near-term risk/reward opportunity. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
GOVERNMENT SELLING SEEMS TO BE COMPLETE Last week, we highlighted the negative seasonality from mid-August through September but emphasized that macro trends and identifiable crypto-specific factors should take precedence in assessing risk. _Source: TradingView, Fundstrat_ Since last week’s CPI print, conditions have been favorable for crypto – yields and the DXY have fallen in a non-recessionary manner (more Goldilocks than risk-off), and rate-sensitive assets like IWM and RSP have rallied....
MARKET UPDATE U.S. EQUITIES ARE DECLINING AS INVESTORS DERISK AHEAD OF TOMORROW’S SPEECH FROM FED CHAIR POWELL AT THE JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM, EXPECTED AT 10 AM EST. The SPY 0.80% has declined to $555, and the QQQ 1.23% to just below $475. Crypto rallied yesterday afternoon after it was reported that, if elected, Kamala Harris will support policies that ensure technologies like digital assets can continue to grow. BTC rallied to...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE This morning's big news came from the BLS, which revised payrolls down by 818k for the 12 months ending in March. In response, the DXY turned negative as yields fell and market confidence in upcoming Fed cuts grew. Price action continues to suggest that the market views a soft landing as possible, with risk assets rallying in tandem with Treasuries. BTC spiked to $60k following the U.S....
BTC Performance During US Market Hours Suggests Govt Selling as a Key Factor in Lack of Upside, Keep an Eye on Prediction Markets
Macro conditions have been ideal for a rally, yet BTC has struggled to break out, underperforming equities. We suspect government sales of 10k seized BTC are a major contributor to this relative weakness. However, we believe this pressure will ease soon, reducing the short-term bearish outlook. Additionally, we explore shifting trends in the presidential prediction markets. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC
MARKET UPDATE RISK ASSETS ARE MOVING LOWER IN TUESDAY TRADING AHEAD OF A DENSE REST OF THE WEEK FOR MACROECONOMIC EVENTS. After rallying above $61k, BTC has dropped below $59k, and ETH has followed suit, moving below $2,600. SOL is underperforming today after the SEC reportedly rejected two 19b-4 filings for Solana spot ETFs under the assumption that Solana should be designated as a security. Tron (TRX) is one of...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC continues to trade in a tight range, hovering just above $58K after retesting $60K over the weekend. Similarly, ETH is moving sideways, currently just under $2,600, while SOL is trading just over $142 after revisiting the mid-$130s late last week. Using perpetual futures funding rates as a gauge for market sentiment, it seems market participants remain cautious, with BTC's open interest-weighted funding rate flipping negative again...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding saw a notable increase from $82 million to $202 million, a 147% increase, while this week’s deal count was roughly in-line with the previous two weeks, notching 17 deals compared to 18. Infrastructure was the leading category in terms of fundraising, making up approximately two-thirds of the total with $137 million. CeFi was the next most funded category at $40 million, with the two companies receiving...