Crypto Research
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CME Basis Suggests We Are Near a Tradable Low, Plus Some Thoughts on Positioning Ahead of the Election
A ROUGH STRETCH AMID RISING UNCERTAINTY SKEWS RISKS TO THE UPSIDE The past five trading days have been challenging for the crypto market, marked by significant uncertainty stemming from various geopolitical and economic events. Among the notable sources of market distress are:GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS: Iran’s missile attack on Israel has led to heightened anticipation of an Israeli response, with oil prices spiking to $74.NATURAL DISASTERS: A devastating hurricane in the Southeast...
MARKET UPDATE Crypto is broadly lower today as geopolitical conflict continues to weigh on risk assets, with BTC 2.35% falling to $60k and ETH 6.61% approaching the low $2,300s. Aptos (APT N/A% ) is one of the few gainers in the top 100 tokens as they have strengthened their presence in Japan via an acquisition of HashPalette, a Japanese NFT service provider and developer of Palette Chain. AAVE 15.60% is also showing slight gains following...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Crypto prices have rebounded slightly following yesterday's sharp selloff, with BTC 2.35% climbing back above $61,000 and SOL 3.02% moving above $145, while ETH 6.61% is lagging, trading around $2,400. Among today's outperformers is SUI 2.93% , which appears resilient despite a $115 million token unlock yesterday. Oil is partially retracing its early rally, gold is lower on the day, and yields are moving higher, suggesting at least a temporary reversal of...
MARKET UPDATE Markets are selling off in the first day of Q4, fueled by geopolitical fears as tensions rise in the mid-east. The SPY 0.07% and QQQ 0.05% have dropped 1.14% and 1.92%, respectively, while the VIX has surged over 17%. XAU and DXY are gaining as investors move towards safe-havens. Crypto assets have also sold off, with BTC 2.35% briefly dropping below $62k and ETH 6.61% below $2.5k. Among altcoins, SUI 2.93% is showing...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Crypto markets have broadly moved lower over the past 24 hours, though there are notable pockets of resilience. BTC 2.35% is testing its 200-day moving average, just below $64,000, while ETH 6.61% is showing relative strength, trading above $2,600. SOL 3.02% has outpaced both majors, trading just above $156. Among the top 100, standout performers include BONK 7.07% , BEAM 2.31% , WIF 13.45% , AR 7.94% , and TAO 9.05% . Meanwhile, US equity markets are rebounding from a...
WEEKLY RECAP In the last full week of September, crypto funding rose 40% from $167 million to $233 million despite the deal count falling by almost half from 29 to 15 deals. This week was a relatively unique week for funding, 97% of funding and 93% of deals falling within the Infrastructure and DeFi categories. CeFi and Web3 saw no deal flow, and Gaming had just one deal for $6...
MARKET UPDATE August PCE data came in slightly below expectations, with Core MoM PCE reading 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected, reaffirming that inflation is receding steadily. Debates over the size of the Fed’s next rate cut have already begun, with odds for 50bps increasing slightly after the PCE data, rising to 52.1% compared to 49.3% yesterday. Stocks are relatively flat to end the week, with the SPY 0.07% gaining 0.14% and the...
PBOC ONE-UPPING THE FED This week, China’s central bank initiated what we believe are the first steps in a broader effort to stimulate the economy, which is struggling to meet its annual growth target of around 5%. These new measures are aimed at reviving economic activity and restoring confidence, especially in the real estate and equity markets, both of which are facing significant challenges. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...
MARKET UPDATE The PBoC has announced a fresh package of economic stimulus, weighing a $142 billion injection into top domestic banks and pledging to stabilize the housing and stock markets. Domestically, durable goods data came in better than expected, and GDP met expectations, providing more confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy. Crypto is responding positively to both developments, as BTC 2.35% has gained to $65.3k and ETH 6.61% to $2,650,...